The Bull Case For Tutor Perini (TPC) Could Change Following Record $21.1 Billion Backlog Growth

• In the past week, Tutor Perini reported quarterly results that exceeded analyst expectations for both revenue and EBITDA, alongside achieving a record high project backlog of US$21.1 billion.
• This unprecedented backlog increase, driven by large contract wins such as the US$1.87 billion Midtown Bus Terminal, provides the company with greater revenue predictability and operational stability over the coming years.
• We'll examine how Tutor Perini's record backlog growth could influence the company's long-term revenue outlook and investment narrative.

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Tutor Perini Investment Narrative Recap

For shareholders, the central thesis remains that Tutor Perini’s all-time high project backlog signals improved revenue predictability and operational stability, assuming execution risk on large public contracts is effectively managed. The latest results support near-term optimism by confirming revenue and EBITDA beats, directly bolstering the biggest short-term catalyst: sustained backlog growth. However, persistent risks around cost overruns, litigation, and underperformance on mega-projects have not been eliminated and remain relevant despite strong headline figures.

The most relevant recent announcement is the US$1.87 billion Midtown Bus Terminal award, a cornerstone addition that drove the record US$21.1 billion backlog. This contract is especially impactful for supporting the company's multi-year revenue visibility and addressing investor focus on scale. Yet, it also underscores the ongoing complexity and risks inherent in executing major public infrastructure work, which can affect both margins and long-term profitability.

But even with these milestone wins, investors should be aware that if execution challenges emerge in these mega-projects...

Read the full narrative on Tutor Perini (it's free!)

Tutor Perini's outlook anticipates $7.1 billion in revenue and $515.9 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario reflects a 14.2% annual revenue growth and a $648.2 million increase in earnings from the current level of $-132.3 million.

Uncover how Tutor Perini's forecasts yield a $75.00 fair value, a 24% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members have submitted five fair value estimates for Tutor Perini ranging from US$67.00 up to US$149.63. While some see potential for further upside, others caution that execution risks on recently won mega-projects could influence the company’s future performance, reinforcing the value of considering different viewpoints.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Tutor Perini - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Tutor Perini Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Tutor Perini research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Tutor Perini research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Tutor Perini's overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In Tutor Perini?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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