Redwire (RDW): Assessing Valuation After DARPA Otter VLEO Win and Edge Autonomy Acquisition

Redwire (RDW) has jumped back into focus after winning a $44 million DARPA contract for its Otter VLEO mission and closing the Edge Autonomy acquisition, sharpening its profile in defense focused space infrastructure.

See our latest analysis for Redwire.

Those wins are arriving after a bruising stretch, with the share price down sharply year to date despite a strong recent rebound and a powerful three year total shareholder return that suggests long term momentum is still intact.

If Redwire's contract driven story has caught your eye, it can be worth scanning other aerospace and defense names using aerospace and defense stocks for fresh ideas in the same lane.

With the shares still down heavily this year but trading at a steep discount to analyst targets, the real puzzle is whether Redwire is quietly undervalued or if the market is already discounting the growth story ahead.

Most Popular Narrative: 44.9% Undervalued

With Redwire last closing at $7.29 against a narrative fair value near $13.22, the storyline leans decisively toward substantial upside potential.

The rapid proliferation of commercial satellites and upcoming public/private low Earth orbit projects continues to build demand for Redwire's advanced in space manufacturing, deployable structures, and subsystems, supporting multi year visibility on high margin product sales and recurring earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how fast growing space revenues, margin expansion, and a premium future earnings multiple combine into that valuation call? The full narrative reveals the bold growth math behind this upside case.

Result: Fair Value of $13.22 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent government contracting delays and cost overruns on complex fixed price programs could derail that upside path and further pressure margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Redwire narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

While the narrative fair value points to upside, the market message from sales based metrics is far tougher. At a 4.1x price to sales ratio versus 3.1x for the US Aerospace and Defense group and a fair ratio of 1.7x, Redwire looks richly priced on current revenues, raising the question of how much growth is already baked in.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Redwire Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to dig through the details yourself, you can shape a personalized view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Redwire research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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