Redwire Corporation

NYSE:RDW Stock Report

Market Cap: US$774.5m

Redwire Valuation

Is RDW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RDW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RDW ($11.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($41.37)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RDW is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RDW?

Key metric: As RDW is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for RDW. This is calculated by dividing RDW's market cap by their current revenue.
What is RDW's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.5x
SalesUS$298.03m
Market CapUS$774.54m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does RDW's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for RDW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.9x
ATRO Astronics
0.8x5.8%US$575.1m
EH EHang Holdings
20.1x37.0%US$991.7m
LUNR Intuitive Machines
4.8x28.4%US$1.8b
BYRN Byrna Technologies
5.9x22.4%US$480.2m
RDW Redwire
2.5x14.9%US$774.5m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: RDW is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x) compared to the peer average (7.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does RDW's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VVX V2X
0.5x5.2%US$1.88b
LLAP Terran Orbital
0.4x29.5%US$51.22m
SIF SIFCO Industries
0.2xn/aUS$21.69m
AIRI Air Industries Group
0.3x8.9%US$14.28m
RDW 2.5xIndustry Avg. 2.5xNo. of Companies9PS0246810+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: RDW is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (2.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RDW's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RDW PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.5x
Fair PS Ratio1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: RDW is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RDW forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$11.02
US$9.90
-10.2%
23.1%US$13.00US$6.00n/a5
Nov ’25US$7.76
US$8.55
+10.2%
16.4%US$10.00US$6.00n/a5
Oct ’25US$6.41
US$8.25
+28.7%
16.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$6.75
US$8.25
+22.2%
16.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a5
Aug ’25US$6.58
US$8.25
+25.4%
16.0%US$10.00US$6.00n/a5
Jul ’25US$6.94
US$7.60
+9.5%
21.4%US$10.00US$6.00n/a5
Jun ’25US$5.14
US$7.60
+47.9%
21.4%US$10.00US$6.00n/a5
May ’25US$3.92
US$6.00
+53.1%
25.8%US$9.00US$5.00n/a5
Apr ’25US$4.37
US$6.00
+37.3%
25.8%US$9.00US$5.00n/a5
Mar ’25US$3.09
US$5.80
+87.7%
27.6%US$9.00US$5.00n/a5
Feb ’25US$2.92
US$6.00
+105.5%
28.9%US$9.00US$5.00n/a4
Jan ’25US$2.85
US$6.00
+110.5%
28.9%US$9.00US$5.00n/a4
Dec ’24US$2.67
US$6.33
+137.2%
29.8%US$9.00US$5.00n/a3
Nov ’24US$2.74
US$8.00
+192.0%
27.0%US$10.00US$5.00US$7.763
Oct ’24US$2.89
US$8.00
+176.8%
27.0%US$10.00US$5.00US$6.413
Sep ’24US$3.32
US$7.00
+110.8%
28.6%US$9.00US$5.00US$6.752
Aug ’24US$3.65
US$7.00
+91.8%
28.6%US$9.00US$5.00US$6.582
Jul ’24US$2.55
US$7.00
+174.5%
28.6%US$9.00US$5.00US$6.942
Jun ’24US$2.45
US$7.00
+185.7%
28.6%US$9.00US$5.00US$5.142
May ’24US$3.02
US$7.50
+148.3%
33.3%US$10.00US$5.00US$3.922

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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