Douglas Dynamics (NYSE:PLOW) - Share price, News & Analysis

PLOW fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	3/6

PLOW Stock Overview

Douglas Dynamics, Inc. operates as a manufacturer and upfitter of commercial work truck attachments and equipment in North America.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 36.16% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Dividend of 3.8% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Douglas Dynamics Competitors

Cummins

NYSE:CMI

US$28.6b

Allison Transmission Holdings

NYSE:ALSN

US$3.7b

Federal Signal

NYSE:FSS

US$2.0b

Shyft Group

NasdaqGS:SHYF

US$754.7m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Douglas Dynamics
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$30.49
52 Week High	US$45.74
52 Week Low	US$29.14
Beta	0.90
1 Month Change	-10.06%
3 Month Change	-17.75%
1 Year Change	-27.78%
3 Year Change	-19.21%
5 Year Change	5.32%
Change since IPO	170.06%

Recent News & Updates

Mar 31

Douglas Dynamics: Plowing Your Way To Profits

Douglas Dynamics has had a rough couple of years due to the pandemic, but the overall fundamental condition of the business is favorable. Shares are not particularly cheap, but in two of three ways they tilt in the cheap direction. Overall, if management is accurate in their forecasts, shares might offer investors some upside.

Shareholder Returns

	PLOW	US Machinery	US Market
7D	2.0%	4.2%	2.7%
1Y	-27.8%	-13.9%	-8.1%

Return vs Industry: PLOW underperformed the US Machinery industry which returned -18.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PLOW underperformed the US Market which returned -10.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PLOW's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PLOW volatility
PLOW Average Weekly Movement	4.2%
Machinery Industry Average Movement	5.6%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: PLOW is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PLOW's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1948	1,436	Bob McCormick	https://www.douglasdynamics.com

Douglas Dynamics, Inc. operates as a manufacturer and upfitter of commercial work truck attachments and equipment in North America. It operates through two segments, Work Truck Attachments and Work Truck Solutions. The Work Truck Attachments segment manufactures and sells snow and ice control attachments, including snowplows, and sand and salt spreaders for light trucks and heavy duty trucks, as well as various related parts and accessories.

Douglas Dynamics Fundamentals Summary

How do Douglas Dynamics's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PLOW fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$681.11m
Earnings (TTM)	US$25.55m
Revenue (TTM)	US$540.71m

27.3x

P/E Ratio

1.3x

P/S Ratio

Is PLOW overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PLOW income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$540.71m
Cost of Revenue	US$403.95m
Gross Profit	US$136.77m
Other Expenses	US$111.22m
Earnings	US$25.55m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.12
Gross Margin	25.29%
Net Profit Margin	4.73%
Debt/Equity Ratio	110.7%

How did PLOW perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.8%

Current Dividend Yield

103%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is Douglas Dynamics undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

27.31x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: PLOW ($30.49) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($21.89)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PLOW is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: PLOW is poor value based on its PE Ratio (27.3x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (21.4x).

PE vs Market: PLOW is poor value based on its PE Ratio (27.3x) compared to the US market (15.5x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: PLOW is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.8x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: PLOW is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3.4x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (2.1x).

Future Growth

How is Douglas Dynamics forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

36.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PLOW's forecast earnings growth (36.2% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: PLOW's earnings (36.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PLOW's revenue (7.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PLOW's revenue (7.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if PLOW's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Past Performance

How has Douglas Dynamics performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-26.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PLOW has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PLOW became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PLOW's earnings have declined by 26.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: PLOW has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: PLOW has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Machinery industry (24%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: PLOW's Return on Equity (12.6%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Douglas Dynamics's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PLOW's short term assets ($202.9M) exceed its short term liabilities ($73.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: PLOW's short term assets ($202.9M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($269.8M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PLOW's net debt to equity ratio (106.7%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: PLOW's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 149.9% to 110.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PLOW's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (4.5%).

Interest Coverage: PLOW's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4.2x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Douglas Dynamics's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

3.80%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: PLOW's dividend (3.8%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.54%).

High Dividend: PLOW's dividend (3.8%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.06%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: PLOW's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: PLOW's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (102.5%), PLOW's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: PLOW is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Capital Goods industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Bob McCormick (60 yo)

3.33yrs

Tenure

US$3,338,813

Compensation

Mr. Robert M. McCormick, also known as Bob, has been President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of Douglas Dynamics, Inc. since January 1, 2019. Mr. McCormick served as Chief Operating Officer of Doug...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Bob's total compensation ($USD3.34M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD3.91M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Bob's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PLOW's management team is considered experienced (4.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: PLOW's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 10.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: PLOW insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/17 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/17 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31