Douglas Dynamics' (NYSE:PLOW) Returns Have Hit A Wall

What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. Having said that, from a first glance at Douglas Dynamics (NYSE:PLOW) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Douglas Dynamics is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.12 = US$55m ÷ (US$617m - US$145m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

So, Douglas Dynamics has an ROCE of 12%. That's a relatively normal return on capital, and it's around the 13% generated by the Machinery industry.

Check out our latest analysis for Douglas Dynamics

In the above chart we have measured Douglas Dynamics' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Douglas Dynamics .

So How Is Douglas Dynamics' ROCE Trending?

We're a bit concerned with the trends, because the business is applying 26% less capital than it was five years ago and returns on that capital have stayed flat. This indicates to us that assets are being sold and thus the business is likely shrinking, which you'll remember isn't the typical ingredients for an up-and-coming multi-bagger. So if this trend continues, don't be surprised if the business is smaller in a few years time.

On another note, while the change in ROCE trend might not scream for attention, it's interesting that the current liabilities have actually gone up over the last five years. This is intriguing because if current liabilities hadn't increased to 24% of total assets, this reported ROCE would probably be less than12% because total capital employed would be higher.The 12% ROCE could be even lower if current liabilities weren't 24% of total assets, because the the formula would show a larger base of total capital employed. With that in mind, just be wary if this ratio increases in the future, because if it gets particularly high, this brings with it some new elements of risk.

The Bottom Line

In summary, Douglas Dynamics isn't reinvesting funds back into the business and returns aren't growing. And in the last five years, the stock has given away 15% so the market doesn't look too hopeful on these trends strengthening any time soon. On the whole, we aren't too inspired by the underlying trends and we think there may be better chances of finding a multi-bagger elsewhere.

Like most companies, Douglas Dynamics does come with some risks, and we've found 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com