Oshkosh (OSK): Evaluating Whether Recent Share Price Gains Still Leave Undervalued Upside Potential

Oshkosh (OSK) has been quietly rewarding patient investors, with the stock climbing about 6% over the past month and more than 40% year to date, driven by solid revenue and earnings growth.

See our latest analysis for Oshkosh.

That momentum is not a flash in the pan. Oshkosh has delivered a robust year to date share price return, while a solid one year total shareholder return suggests investors are increasingly pricing in its earnings traction and defense exposure rather than backing away.

If Oshkosh’s steady climb has you rethinking your watchlist, it could be a good moment to see what else is moving across aerospace and defense stocks.

With shares now within sight of Wall Street price targets, yet still trading at a hefty intrinsic discount, investors face a key question: is Oshkosh a mispriced value opportunity, or has the market already baked in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.4% Undervalued

With Oshkosh last closing at $132.49 and the most followed narrative pointing to fair value around $153.08, the story hinges on sustained earnings compounding.

Recent multi year government contract wins (FMTV, FHTV, and the USPS NGDV program) provide improved pricing, recurring high visibility revenue, and create a stable foundation for further earnings growth. Capacity investments and operational improvements in high margin, less cyclical businesses like the Vocational segment are allowing Oshkosh to progressively work down backlogs and capture both volume growth and pricing gains, supporting ongoing operating margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady contract cash flows, rising margins, and a lower future earnings multiple can still point to upside potential? The full narrative unpacks every assumption driving that gap.

Result: Fair Value of $153.08 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, tariff driven cost pressures and heavy reliance on large government contracts could quickly undermine margin expansion and the current undervaluation thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Oshkosh narrative.

Build Your Own Oshkosh Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to dig into the data yourself, you can build a complete view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Oshkosh research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Do not stop with Oshkosh when the market is full of under the radar opportunities waiting for sharp investors who know where to look and act decisively.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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