Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE:ITW) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Illinois Tool Works
What Is Illinois Tool Works's Net Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Illinois Tool Works had US$8.47b in debt in June 2024; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$862.0m, its net debt is less, at about US$7.61b.
A Look At Illinois Tool Works' Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Illinois Tool Works had liabilities of US$4.80b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$7.81b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$862.0m and US$3.25b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$8.50b.
Since publicly traded Illinois Tool Works shares are worth a very impressive total of US$76.0b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Illinois Tool Works's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 1.6 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its strong interest cover of 18.4 times, makes us even more comfortable. The good news is that Illinois Tool Works has increased its EBIT by 7.1% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Illinois Tool Works's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Illinois Tool Works recorded free cash flow worth 62% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
The good news is that Illinois Tool Works's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is good too. When we consider the range of factors above, it looks like Illinois Tool Works is pretty sensible with its use of debt. That means they are taking on a bit more risk, in the hope of boosting shareholder returns. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Illinois Tool Works is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:ITW
Illinois Tool Works
Manufactures and sells industrial products and equipment in the United States and internationally.
Established dividend payer with mediocre balance sheet.