ATI (ATI): Exploring Current Valuation After a Year of Steady Share Price Gains

ATI (ATI) has caught investor attention with a steady performance over the past year, gaining almost 25% and delivering strong growth in both revenue and net income. The company’s trajectory sparks further interest, especially given the current market conditions.

See our latest analysis for ATI.

ATI’s share price has trended steadily upward over the last year, reflecting improving fundamentals and a healthy appetite for growth stocks in the market. The recent performance is marked by a 1-year total shareholder return of 24.9 percent, with momentum still holding strong in 2024.

If ATI’s resilience has you wondering what other strong performers are out there, consider broadening your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

Given ATI’s impressive run, the question now is whether the current price truly reflects all the company’s upside potential or if investors could still find value before future growth is fully priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 20.6% Undervalued

ATI’s widely followed narrative argues that its fair value stands significantly above the latest close, indicating there may be meaningful room for upside if current business drivers continue to have an effect.

Recent long-term contract expansions with both Boeing and Airbus, including new titanium alloy sheet supply and broader product offerings, lock in higher volumes and minimums, expand ATI's share, and feature inflation pass-through and attractive pricing. These contracts directly support reliable, higher-margin revenue growth and a structurally improved earnings base through the decade.

Read the complete narrative.

Is ATI’s multi-year pricing power really that strong? The numbers behind this valuation rely on a rare blend of locked-in supply deals, bolder earnings projections, and margin upgrades by skeptical analysts. What game-changing assumptions underline this optimism? Read on and find out.

Result: Fair Value of $102.43 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ATI’s heavy dependence on a small group of aerospace clients and ongoing global trade tensions could quickly threaten its upbeat growth story.

Find out about the key risks to this ATI narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Perspective

While analyst price targets point to more upside for ATI, our DCF model paints a different picture. It values the company at $77.48 per share, slightly below the current market price. This suggests ATI could be fairly valued or even a touch expensive, depending on your outlook for future cash flows. However, does the market see something our DCF does not?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ATI for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own ATI Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dive into your own research, you can craft your own narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way

A great starting point for your ATI research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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