Woodward (NasdaqGS:WWD) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of WWD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

WWD ($83.24) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($205.65)

WWD fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

WWD Stock Overview

Woodward, Inc. designs, manufactures, and services control solutions for the aerospace and industrial markets worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 59.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 26.97% per year

Risk Analysis

WWD passed our risk checks.

Woodward Competitors

Curtiss-Wright

NYSE:CW

US$5.5b

Parsons

NYSE:PSN

US$4.2b

Hexcel

NYSE:HXL

US$4.5b

BWX Technologies

NYSE:BWXT

US$4.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Woodward
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$83.24
52 Week High	US$129.12
52 Week Low	US$79.26
Beta	1.49
1 Month Change	-9.53%
3 Month Change	-9.61%
1 Year Change	-28.41%
3 Year Change	-21.50%
5 Year Change	5.27%
Change since IPO	2,095.34%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 26

Is Now The Time To Look At Buying Woodward, Inc. (NASDAQ:WWD)?

Woodward, Inc. ( NASDAQ:WWD ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price movement during...

Sep 21

Woodward declares $0.19 dividend

Woodward (NASDAQ:WWD) declared $0.19/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 0.85% Payable Nov. 28; for shareholders of record Nov. 14; ex-div Nov. 11. See WWD Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.

Shareholder Returns

	WWD	US Aerospace & Defense	US Market
7D	1.5%	1.0%	1.0%
1Y	-28.4%	0.8%	-20.0%

Return vs Industry: WWD underperformed the US Aerospace & Defense industry which returned -2.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: WWD underperformed the US Market which returned -23.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is WWD's price volatile compared to industry and market?
WWD volatility
WWD Average Weekly Movement	5.3%
Aerospace & Defense Industry Average Movement	6.1%
Market Average Movement	6.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	15.5%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: WWD is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: WWD's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1870	7,200	Chip Blankenship	https://www.woodward.com

Woodward, Inc. designs, manufactures, and services control solutions for the aerospace and industrial markets worldwide. The company operates through two segments: Aerospace and Industrial. The Aerospace segment provides fuel pumps, metering units, actuators, air valves, specialty valves, fuel nozzles, and thrust reverser actuation systems for turbine engines and nacelles, and flight deck controls, actuators, servocontrols, motors, and sensors for aircraft.

Woodward Fundamentals Summary

How do Woodward's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
WWD fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$5.01b
Earnings (TTM)	US$167.56m
Revenue (TTM)	US$2.31b

29.9x

P/E Ratio

2.2x

P/S Ratio

Is WWD overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
WWD income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$2.31b
Cost of Revenue	US$1.79b
Gross Profit	US$523.56m
Other Expenses	US$356.00m
Earnings	US$167.56m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.79
Gross Margin	22.64%
Net Profit Margin	7.24%
Debt/Equity Ratio	40.0%

How did WWD perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.9%

Current Dividend Yield

26%

Payout Ratio

Does WWD pay a reliable dividends?

See WWD dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy WWD by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Woodward dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Nov 10 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Nov 28 2022
Days until Ex dividend	37 days
Days until Dividend pay date	55 days

Does WWD pay a reliable dividends?

See WWD dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is WWD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WWD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for WWD. This is calculated by dividing WWD's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is WWD's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$5.01b

WWD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	16.5x
PEG Ratio	1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does WWD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

WWD PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for WWD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	33.6x
CW Curtiss-Wright	21.2x	3.5%	US$5.5b
PSN Parsons	48.3x	28.7%	US$4.2b
HXL Hexcel	49.7x	33.1%	US$4.5b
BWXT BWX Technologies	15.2x	5.6%	US$4.7b
WWD Woodward	29.9x	27.0%	US$5.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: WWD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.9x) compared to the peer average (33.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does WWD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: WWD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.9x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (23.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WWD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WWD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	29.9x
Fair PE Ratio	27.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: WWD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WWD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: WWD ($83.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($205.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WWD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Woodward forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

27.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: WWD's forecast earnings growth (27% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: WWD's earnings (27% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: WWD's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: WWD's revenue (8.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: WWD's revenue (8.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if WWD's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Woodward performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

0.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: WWD has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: WWD's current net profit margins (7.2%) are lower than last year (9.8%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: WWD's earnings have grown by 0.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: WWD's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: WWD had negative earnings growth (-22.4%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Aerospace & Defense industry average (11.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: WWD's Return on Equity (8.8%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Woodward's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: WWD's short term assets ($1.3B) exceed its short term liabilities ($424.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: WWD's short term assets ($1.3B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.4B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: WWD's net debt to equity ratio (34.8%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: WWD's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 52.7% to 40% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: WWD's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (30.4%).

Interest Coverage: WWD's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (9.1x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Woodward current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

0.91%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Woodward Dividend Yield vs Market

How does Woodward dividend yield compare to the market?
Segment	Dividend Yield
Company (Woodward)	0.9%
Market Bottom 25% (US)	1.6%
Market Top 25% (US)	4.6%
Industry Average (Aerospace & Defense)	2.1%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Woodward)	1.0%

Notable Dividend: WWD's dividend (0.91%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.67%).

High Dividend: WWD's dividend (0.91%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.75%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: WWD is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: WWD is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: WWD is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: WWD is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Chip Blankenship

0.42yr

Tenure

Mr. Charles P. Blankenship, Jr., also known as Chip, serves as Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman at Woodward, Inc. since May 9, 2022. He served as Chief Executive Officer and Director of Arco...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: WWD's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: WWD's board of directors are considered experienced (8.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: WWD insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

NasdaqGS:WWD Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
Date	Value	Name	Entity	Shares	Max Price
06 Sep 22	BuyUS$39,945	Rajeev Bhalla	Individual	435	US$91.83
01 Sep 22	BuyUS$193,242	Paul Donovan	Individual	2,100	US$92.02
31 Aug 22	BuyUS$494,752	Paul Donovan	Individual	5,300	US$93.80
31 Aug 22	BuyUS$46,485	Charles Blankenship	Individual	500	US$92.97
30 Aug 22	BuyUS$1,033,230	David Hess	Individual	11,000	US$93.93
29 Aug 22	BuyUS$96,925	Charles Blankenship	Individual	1,000	US$98.00
22 Aug 22	BuyUS$296,550	Paul Donovan	Individual	3,000	US$101.16
04 Aug 22	BuyUS$1,048,796	Paul Donovan	Individual	11,100	US$95.86
03 Aug 22	BuyUS$47,484	Charles Blankenship	Individual	500	US$94.97
02 Jun 22	SellUS$1,023,475	Thomas Gendron	Individual	10,000	US$102.35
20 May 22	BuyUS$86,510	Charles Blankenship	Individual	900	US$99.05
09 May 22	BuyUS$49,050	Charles Blankenship	Individual	500	US$98.10
05 May 22	BuyUS$198,767	Daniel Korte	Individual	1,896	US$104.84

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of WWD?
Owner Type	Number of Shares	Ownership Percentage
Private Companies	2,797	0.005%
Employee Share Scheme	21,073	0.04%
State or Government	24,898	0.04%
Individual Insiders	463,921	0.8%
General Public	7,955,067	13.2%
Institutions	51,696,141	85.9%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 68.7% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
11.73%	Capital Research and Management Company	7,058,067	$587.5m	0.21%	0.04%
9.43%	BlackRock, Inc.	5,672,052	$472.1m	-1.34%	0.01%
8.79%	The Vanguard Group, Inc.	5,286,059	$440.0m	-2.9%	0.01%
7.03%	Eagle Capital Management LLC	4,229,407	$352.1m	12.58%	1.55%
3.53%	Eaton Vance Management	2,122,910	$176.7m	-0.63%	0.07%
3.43%	State Street Global Advisors, Inc.	2,061,797	$171.6m	-3.4%	0.01%
2.92%	Cooke & Bieler, L.P.	1,759,615	$146.5m	9.57%	1.49%
2.3%	Deccan Value Investors L.P.	1,384,717	$115.3m	-19.45%	8.9%
1.76%	Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., Asset Management Arm	1,059,657	$88.2m	0%	0.64%
1.61%	Geode Capital Management, LLC	970,045	$80.7m	7.8%	0.01%
1.59%	EARNEST Partners, LLC	958,962	$79.8m	19.41%	0.52%
1.52%	FMR LLC	911,970	$75.9m	-1.01%	0.01%
1.5%	J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc.	899,468	$74.9m	-11.26%	0.01%
1.28%	Managed Account Advisors LLC	769,542	$64.1m	-2.88%	0.02%
1.26%	Brown Advisory Incorporated	757,140	$63.0m	15.21%	0.11%
1.15%	Snyder Capital Management, L.P.	691,318	$57.5m	1.56%	1.58%
1.1%	Northern Trust Global Investments	664,150	$55.3m	-10.11%	0.01%
1.04%	Dimensional Fund Advisors LP	623,624	$51.9m	10.46%	0.01%
0.96%	Hermes Investment Management Limited	578,319	$48.1m	-2.67%	0.31%
0.94%	BNY Mellon Asset Management	565,738	$47.1m	-0.03%	0.01%
0.81%	Norges Bank Investment Management	488,406	$40.7m	0%	0.01%
0.81%	Eagle Asset Management, Inc.	485,634	$40.4m	-10.5%	0.25%
0.77%	Pzena Investment Management, Inc.	461,755	$38.4m	0%	0.12%
0.75%	Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.	450,540	$37.5m	3.34%	0.01%
0.7%	SPF Beheer B.V.	420,279	$35.0m	0%	1.18%

Ticker	Exchange	Primary Security	Security Type	Country	Currency	Listed on
WWD	NasdaqGS (Nasdaq Global Select)	Yes	Common Stock	US	USD	Dec 1972
WW1	DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)	Yes	Common Stock	DE	EUR	Dec 1972

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/10/03 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/10/03 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/09/30