If you are trying to make sense of AMETEK and whether now is the right time to buy, hold, or even sell, you are not alone. With so many moving parts and headlines swirling, it can be tough to cut through the noise. The company’s stock has delivered a total return of more than 13% over the past year, and almost 90% over the past five years, making it a name that is hard to ignore in any serious portfolio.
Recently, the price has continued its climb, closing at $185.20, just under 10% below the average analyst price target. Even with some recent volatility across industrial stocks as markets digest macroeconomic updates, AMETEK has not skipped a beat, pushing higher over the past month and quarter. Its annual revenue and net income growth numbers, at 7.1% and 7.9% respectively, paint the picture of a company managing steady, dependable progress despite outside uncertainty.
But here is where it gets interesting for valuation-minded investors—and maybe a bit more complicated. Using six key valuation checks to gauge if AMETEK is undervalued, the company scores a 2, meaning it passes two checks but not the others. Is that enough to call the stock a bargain, or is there more to the story than what these surface-level scores reveal?
Let’s break down these valuation methods step by step to see how the numbers stack up. After that, we will explore an approach that could provide even deeper insight into AMETEK’s long-term value.
AMETEK delivered 13.1% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Electrical industry.Approach 1: AMETEK Cash Flows
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is a valuation tool that estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its future free cash flows, then discounting those figures back to today’s dollars. This gives investors a sense of what the business is worth if current expectations for its cash generation hold true.
For AMETEK, the most recent annual Free Cash Flow stands at $1.68 billion, reflecting steady annual growth. Looking ahead, analyst forecasts project that by 2035, AMETEK’s Free Cash Flow could reach about $2.8 billion. This robust trajectory highlights the company's potential to generate significantly higher cash in the future.
Based on these projections and using a two-stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, the estimated intrinsic value of AMETEK’s stock is $159.62 per share. With the current share price at $185.20, this suggests that AMETEK is trading at a 16.0% premium to its intrinsic value. According to this particular measure, the stock is overvalued.
Result: OVERVALUED
Approach 2: AMETEK Price vs Earnings
The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is often the go-to valuation tool for profitable companies like AMETEK because it directly measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. It is especially useful when a company has consistent profits, providing a clear gauge of market expectations.
What is considered a fair PE ratio depends on several factors, including a company's growth outlook and perceived risk. Higher growth prospects or lower risks typically justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or greater uncertainty tend to reduce the fair value. Investors use industry averages and peer comparisons to set context for these numbers.
AMETEK currently trades at a PE ratio of 29.75x. This is just under the Electrical industry average of 31.07x and well below the peer group average of 40.48x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for AMETEK, which considers factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, market cap, and risks, is calculated at 24.21x. This means AMETEK’s multiple is modestly above what is considered fair for its profile, indicating the stock is on the pricier side compared to its intrinsic drivers.
Result: OVERVALUEDUpgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your AMETEK Narrative
Narratives are a simple but powerful way to invest by telling your story about a company. They connect what you believe about its future with your assumptions about its revenue, earnings, profit margins, and the fair value you assign.
Instead of just looking at numbers, a Narrative allows you to link the company's real-world story to a financial forecast and then to a fair value, making your investment decision both personal and data-driven.
On Simply Wall St, millions of investors use Narratives to quickly see whether their view of fair value is higher or lower than the current price. This helps them decide when to act and makes the entire process accessible and community-driven.
What makes Narratives even more useful is their ability to update dynamically whenever big news or fresh earnings data arrive. This ensures your perspective is always in sync with the latest available information.
For AMETEK, for example, some investors may see digital automation and a strong acquisition strategy supporting analyst targets above $225. More cautious investors may focus on risks such as acquisition dependence or market weakness and set fair values closer to $158. Narratives make it easy to compare these perspectives and choose which story you believe.
Do you think there's more to the story for AMETEK? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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