Air Lease Corporation

NYSE:AL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.1b

Air Lease Valuation

Is AL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$15.29
Fair Value
204.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: AL ($46.51) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($15.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AL?

Key metric: As AL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AL. This is calculated by dividing AL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.6x
EarningsUS$490.15m
Market CapUS$5.13b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.4x
GATX GATX
20.9x10.5%US$5.8b
RUSH.A Rush Enterprises
15.8x3.3%US$4.7b
MSM MSC Industrial Direct
19.4x8.7%US$4.5b
SITE SiteOne Landscape Supply
45.6x20.4%US$6.4b
AL Air Lease
10.6x12.4%US$5.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.6x) compared to the peer average (25.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Trade Distributors Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MWG Multi Ways Holdings
1.4xn/aUS$9.16m
BYU BAIYU Holdings
0.8xn/aUS$8.94m
No more companies available in this PE range
AL 10.6xIndustry Avg. 19.4xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.6x) compared to the US Trade Distributors industry average (19.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.6x
Fair PE Ratio22.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$46.51
US$55.50
+19.3%
9.5%US$65.00US$47.00n/a6
Jan ’26US$48.21
US$57.57
+19.4%
13.3%US$72.00US$47.00n/a7
Dec ’25US$50.90
US$57.57
+13.1%
13.3%US$72.00US$47.00n/a7
Nov ’25US$44.76
US$55.83
+24.7%
14.2%US$72.00US$46.00n/a6
Oct ’25US$44.20
US$55.83
+26.3%
14.2%US$72.00US$46.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$46.27
US$55.83
+20.7%
14.2%US$72.00US$46.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$47.71
US$57.17
+19.8%
12.5%US$72.00US$49.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$46.65
US$56.57
+21.3%
11.8%US$72.00US$49.00n/a7
Jun ’25US$47.64
US$56.29
+18.1%
10.6%US$70.00US$49.00n/a7
May ’25US$50.29
US$57.29
+13.9%
9.8%US$70.00US$51.00n/a7
Apr ’25US$51.18
US$54.13
+5.8%
15.7%US$70.00US$41.00n/a8
Mar ’25US$39.90
US$52.88
+32.5%
12.5%US$62.00US$41.00n/a8
Feb ’25US$42.85
US$53.00
+23.7%
11.4%US$60.00US$41.00n/a9
Jan ’25US$41.94
US$52.63
+25.5%
12.6%US$60.00US$41.00US$48.218
Dec ’24US$39.68
US$52.63
+32.6%
12.6%US$60.00US$41.00US$50.908
Nov ’24US$34.76
US$53.07
+52.7%
14.1%US$60.00US$37.50US$44.767
Oct ’24US$39.41
US$54.29
+37.7%
10.2%US$60.00US$43.00US$44.207
Sep ’24US$41.21
US$54.29
+31.7%
10.2%US$60.00US$43.00US$46.277
Aug ’24US$42.23
US$55.14
+30.6%
12.4%US$65.00US$41.00US$47.717
Jul ’24US$41.85
US$53.71
+28.3%
10.3%US$59.00US$41.00US$46.657
Jun ’24US$39.11
US$53.63
+37.1%
9.6%US$59.00US$41.00US$47.648
May ’24US$40.19
US$54.88
+36.5%
3.8%US$58.00US$52.00US$50.298
Apr ’24US$39.37
US$56.13
+42.6%
5.2%US$60.00US$52.00US$51.188
Mar ’24US$43.39
US$56.13
+29.4%
5.2%US$60.00US$52.00US$39.908
Feb ’24US$45.47
US$55.14
+21.3%
6.1%US$60.00US$51.00US$42.857
Jan ’24US$38.42
US$54.86
+42.8%
4.6%US$60.00US$51.00US$41.947
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 6 Analysts
US$55.50
Fair Value
16.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/30 23:10
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Air Lease Corporation is covered by 25 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Garrett ChaseBarclays
Terry MaBarclays
James FotheringhamBMO Capital Markets Equity Research