Air Lease Corporation

NYSE:AL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.4b

Air Lease Valuation

Is AL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AL ($47.92) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($16.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AL?

Key metric: As AL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AL. This is calculated by dividing AL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.9x
EarningsUS$490.15m
Market CapUS$5.37b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.1x
GATX GATX
20.4x7.1%US$5.4b
BECN Beacon Roofing Supply
18.1x13.0%US$6.8b
SITE SiteOne Landscape Supply
44.4x19.6%US$6.2b
MSM MSC Industrial Direct
17.6x9.0%US$4.5b
AL Air Lease
10.9x12.7%US$5.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the peer average (25.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Trade Distributors Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BYU BAIYU Holdings
0.8xn/aUS$9.09m
No more companies available in this PE range
AL 10.9xIndustry Avg. 16.9xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the US Trade Distributors industry average (17x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.9x
Fair PE Ratio21.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$47.92
US$56.33
+17.6%
13.5%US$72.00US$47.00n/a6
Nov ’25US$44.76
US$55.83
+24.7%
14.2%US$72.00US$46.00n/a6
Oct ’25US$44.20
US$55.83
+26.3%
14.2%US$72.00US$46.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$46.27
US$55.83
+20.7%
14.2%US$72.00US$46.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$47.71
US$57.17
+19.8%
12.5%US$72.00US$49.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$46.65
US$56.57
+21.3%
11.8%US$72.00US$49.00n/a7
Jun ’25US$47.64
US$56.29
+18.1%
10.6%US$70.00US$49.00n/a7
May ’25US$50.29
US$57.29
+13.9%
9.8%US$70.00US$51.00n/a7
Apr ’25US$51.18
US$54.13
+5.8%
15.7%US$70.00US$41.00n/a8
Mar ’25US$39.90
US$52.88
+32.5%
12.5%US$62.00US$41.00n/a8
Feb ’25US$42.85
US$53.00
+23.7%
11.4%US$60.00US$41.00n/a9
Jan ’25US$41.94
US$52.63
+25.5%
12.6%US$60.00US$41.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$39.68
US$52.63
+32.6%
12.6%US$60.00US$41.00n/a8
Nov ’24US$34.76
US$53.07
+52.7%
14.1%US$60.00US$37.50US$44.767
Oct ’24US$39.41
US$54.29
+37.7%
10.2%US$60.00US$43.00US$44.207
Sep ’24US$41.21
US$54.29
+31.7%
10.2%US$60.00US$43.00US$46.277
Aug ’24US$42.23
US$55.14
+30.6%
12.4%US$65.00US$41.00US$47.717
Jul ’24US$41.85
US$53.71
+28.3%
10.3%US$59.00US$41.00US$46.657
Jun ’24US$39.11
US$53.63
+37.1%
9.6%US$59.00US$41.00US$47.648
May ’24US$40.19
US$54.88
+36.5%
3.8%US$58.00US$52.00US$50.298
Apr ’24US$39.37
US$56.13
+42.6%
5.2%US$60.00US$52.00US$51.188
Mar ’24US$43.39
US$56.13
+29.4%
5.2%US$60.00US$52.00US$39.908
Feb ’24US$45.47
US$55.14
+21.3%
6.1%US$60.00US$51.00US$42.857
Jan ’24US$38.42
US$54.86
+42.8%
4.6%US$60.00US$51.00US$41.947
Dec ’23US$38.90
US$54.86
+41.0%
4.6%US$60.00US$51.00US$39.687
Nov ’23US$35.67
US$54.55
+52.9%
4.7%US$60.00US$50.40US$34.768

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Textron

US$15.1b

Operates in the aircraft, defense, industrial, and finance businesses worldwide.

TXT

US$81.86

7D

-6.5%

1Y

4.9%

Mitsubishi

JP¥10.4t

Engages in the natural gas, industrial materials and infrastructure, chemicals, mineral resources, automotive and mobility, food and consumer industry, power solution, and urban development businesses worldwide.

MSBH.F

JP¥17.15

7D

-2.0%

1Y

9.5%

NFI Group

CA$1.8b

Manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and the Asia Pacific.

NFYE.F

CA$10.45

7D

-3.9%

1Y

3.1%