MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.

NYSE:MSM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.2b

MSC Industrial Direct Valuation

Is MSM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MSM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MSM ($73.09) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($173.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MSM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MSM?

Key metric: As MSM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MSM. This is calculated by dividing MSM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MSM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.8x
EarningsUS$258.59m
Market CapUS$4.18b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MSM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MSM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.2x
TRTN Triton International
7.4x-5.1%US$4.4b
RUSH.A Rush Enterprises
14x2.5%US$4.3b
GATX GATX
20.5x7.1%US$5.5b
GMS GMS
15.1x8.3%US$3.3b
MSM MSC Industrial Direct
15.8x9.5%US$4.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MSM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the peer average (16.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MSM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Trade Distributors Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BYU BAIYU Holdings
0.8xn/aUS$8.94m
No more companies available in this PE range
MSM 15.8xIndustry Avg. 16.2xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MSM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the US Trade Distributors industry average (16.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MSM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MSM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.8x
Fair PE Ratio19.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MSM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MSM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$73.09
US$82.00
+12.2%
11.0%US$99.00US$72.00n/a6
Dec ’25US$85.88
US$82.00
-4.5%
11.0%US$99.00US$72.00n/a6
Nov ’25US$80.70
US$82.00
+1.6%
11.0%US$99.00US$72.00n/a6
Oct ’25US$84.97
US$84.67
-0.4%
9.3%US$99.00US$75.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$82.24
US$84.67
+3.0%
9.3%US$99.00US$75.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$84.35
US$84.67
+0.4%
9.3%US$99.00US$75.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$78.23
US$86.50
+10.6%
9.9%US$104.00US$80.00n/a6
Jun ’25US$85.90
US$105.71
+23.1%
8.5%US$124.00US$95.00n/a7
May ’25US$90.96
US$108.14
+18.9%
7.4%US$124.00US$98.00n/a7
Apr ’25US$95.95
US$107.71
+12.3%
8.0%US$124.00US$95.00n/a7
Mar ’25US$100.20
US$107.71
+7.5%
8.0%US$124.00US$95.00n/a7
Feb ’25US$100.17
US$107.71
+7.5%
8.0%US$124.00US$95.00n/a7
Jan ’25US$101.26
US$108.43
+7.1%
7.1%US$124.00US$98.00n/a7
Dec ’24US$98.83
US$108.43
+9.7%
7.1%US$124.00US$98.00US$85.887
Nov ’24US$95.42
US$108.14
+13.3%
7.2%US$124.00US$98.00US$80.707
Oct ’24US$98.15
US$101.71
+3.6%
6.9%US$110.00US$89.00US$84.977
Sep ’24US$101.68
US$101.14
-0.5%
7.5%US$110.00US$89.00US$82.247
Aug ’24US$101.21
US$101.14
-0.07%
7.5%US$110.00US$89.00US$84.357
Jul ’24US$95.28
US$99.29
+4.2%
7.3%US$110.00US$89.00US$78.237
Jun ’24US$90.97
US$96.71
+6.3%
7.0%US$105.00US$86.00US$85.907
May ’24US$91.41
US$96.71
+5.8%
7.0%US$105.00US$86.00US$90.967
Apr ’24US$84.00
US$90.43
+7.7%
8.5%US$100.00US$80.00US$95.957
Mar ’24US$85.44
US$90.43
+5.8%
8.5%US$100.00US$80.00US$100.207
Feb ’24US$86.17
US$90.43
+4.9%
8.5%US$100.00US$80.00US$100.177
Jan ’24US$81.70
US$90.29
+10.5%
7.6%US$100.00US$82.00US$101.267
Dec ’23US$85.54
US$90.29
+5.5%
7.6%US$100.00US$82.00US$98.837

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 22:42
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/08/31
Annual Earnings2024/08/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. is covered by 29 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David MantheyBaird
Scott DavisBarclays
Scott GrahamBMO Capital Markets Equity Research