MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.

NYSE:MSM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.9b

MSC Industrial Direct Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

MSC Industrial Direct is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 10.4% and 4.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 11.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 24.1% in 3 years.

Key information

10.4%

Earnings growth rate

11.51%

EPS growth rate

Trade Distributors earnings growth13.5%
Revenue growth rate4.8%
Future return on equity24.08%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated02 Jul 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Jul 04

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

It's been a good week for MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. ( NYSE:MSM ) shareholders, because the company has just...

Recent updates

Analysis Article • Jul 04

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

It's been a good week for MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. ( NYSE:MSM ) shareholders, because the company has just...
Seeking Alpha • Jul 02

MSC Industrial: A Broadening Industrial Recovery Is Driving Shares To New Highs

Summary MSC Industrial has outperformed peers, driven by industrial production recoveries and momentum in multiple manufacturing end markets. MSM's fiscal Q3 saw nearly 8% revenue growth and a 160bp operating margin improvement, primarily from pricing and SG&A discipline. Management's restructuring—focused so far on headcount and compensation—remains unproven, with past efforts often reversed due to sales impacts. Valuation is challenging at ~14x FY'27 EBITDA; current pricing reflects high expectations for sustained growth and margin leverage from a notoriously cyclical business. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 24

MSM: Future Returns Will Rely On Rich P E Multiple Over Cost Cuts

MSC Industrial Direct's updated analyst price target rises about $7 to roughly $103 per share, with analysts pointing to spend optimization, operating leverage, and planned cost savings as key supports for higher fair value and a slightly higher assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research on MSC Industrial Direct centers on how cost actions, margin potential, and end-market demand could influence earnings power and valuation.
Analysis Article • Jun 17

MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Stock Could Be 22% Overvalued After Analyst Upgrades

Recent analyst initiations and upgrades around MSC Industrial Direct (MSM), along with company comments on continued operating margin expansion and strong digital sales, have pushed the stock into focus for investors who are monitoring the company’s execution on cost efficiency. See our latest analysis for MSC Industrial Direct. Those upgrades and dividend news have arrived alongside a strong run in MSC Industrial Direct’s share price, with a 30 day share price return of 12.06% and a 1 year...
Narrative Update • Jun 06

MSM: Future Returns Will Depend On Rich P E Multiple Despite Cost Cuts

Narrative Update on MSC Industrial Direct Analysts have lifted their price targets on MSC Industrial Direct, with one moving to $120. Recent model updates reflect a fair value adjustment from about $93.50 to roughly $96.17 as they factor in company cost savings plans and expectations for improving end market demand.
Narrative Update • Apr 29

MSM: Future Returns Will Depend On Rich P E Multiple Holding Up

The updated analyst price target for MSC Industrial Direct moves from about $86 to roughly $94, as analysts factor in adjusted discount rates, slightly higher revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, as well as a higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on MSC Industrial Direct reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with analysts adjusting ratings and price targets as they reassess valuation, growth assumptions and execution risks.
New Narrative • Apr 18

Sales Reorganization And Pricing Dependence Will Pressure Margins And Earnings Quality

Catalysts About MSC Industrial Direct MSC Industrial Direct supplies metalworking and MRO products and services to industrial and public sector customers. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
New Narrative • Apr 03

AI And Higher Value Solutions Will Drive Stronger Future Margins And Earnings Quality

Catalysts About MSC Industrial Direct MSC Industrial Direct supplies metalworking and MRO products and services to manufacturing, industrial and public sector customers across North America. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Mar 27

MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect JPMorgan Downgrade And Completed Buyback Program

Analysts have inched up their fair value estimate for MSC Industrial Direct to $86.20 from about $85.83, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E after recent price target revisions such as Baird's move to $94 following Q1 results and a downgrade highlighted by JPMorgan research. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the updated models after Q1 results as keeping the story intact, with the US$94 price target suggesting they still view the shares as reasonably aligned with current earnings power and P/E assumptions.
Narrative Update • Mar 12

MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect Neutral Q1 Reset And Completed Buyback

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on MSC Industrial Direct by $4 to $94, citing updated models after Q1 results and recent rating changes. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the reset to a US$94 price target as a way to align expectations more closely with current Q1 results, which can reduce the risk of future estimate misses.
Narrative Update • Feb 26

MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect Neutral Stance After Downgrade And Model Reset

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on MSC Industrial Direct by $4 to $94. They cited refreshed models after recent Q1 results and a downgrade that reflects slightly adjusted assumptions for growth, margins and future P/E multiples.
Narrative Update • Feb 10

MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect Neutral Stance After Downgrade And Buyback Completion

Analysts have trimmed their price targets on MSC Industrial Direct by a small amount to US$94, reflecting refreshed models after Q1 results and a slightly lower fair value estimate of about US$85.83, along with modestly adjusted assumptions for discount rate, revenue, profit margin and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates point to a more cautious stance on MSC Industrial Direct, with a focus on recalibrated valuation work after Q1 results rather than any single event.
Narrative Update • Jan 26

MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect Neutral Outlook After Q1 Model Reset

Narrative Update: MSC Industrial Direct Analysts nudged their price target on MSC Industrial Direct down from $98 to $94. This reflects updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, profit margins, and a slightly higher future P/E after revisiting their models following recent Q1 results.
Narrative Update • Jan 12

MSM: Future Returns Will Balance Discounted Outlook With Leadership Transition

Narrative Update Overview Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on MSC Industrial Direct to $94 from $98, reflecting updated modeling after Q1 results. This incorporates a fair value estimate shift from $87.50 to $86.00, a slightly higher discount rate, marginally lower revenue growth assumptions, a somewhat higher profit margin outlook, and a future P/E assumption moving from 19.94x to 18.89x.
Narrative Update • Dec 22

MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect Cautious Demand Outlook And Leadership Transition

Analysts have nudged their price target on MSC Industrial Direct slightly lower to approximately $87.50 from about $88.00, reflecting what they see as a more balanced risk and reward profile as they grow incrementally cautious on near-term U.S. short-cycle demand and trim out-year estimates. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates underscore a more neutral stance on MSC Industrial Direct, as cautious views on the near-term macro backdrop are balanced by confidence in the company’s longer-term positioning and disciplined capital allocation.
Narrative Update • Dec 08

MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect Balanced View As Short-Cycle Demand Stays Soft

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on MSC Industrial Direct to $87.50 per share. This reflects a slightly higher assumed future valuation multiple and a marginally increased discount rate, as they balance steady long term fundamentals against a more cautious near term demand outlook.
Narrative Update • Nov 24

MSM: Future Results Will Mirror Balanced Outlook as Near-Term Demand Softens

Narrative Update on MSC Industrial Direct: Analyst Price Target Change The analyst price target for MSC Industrial Direct remains unchanged at $87.50. Analysts point to a more balanced risk/reward outlook and reflect cautious sentiment on short-term U.S. industrial demand.
Narrative Update • Nov 06

MSM: Future Performance Will Reflect Balanced Risk Amid Cautious Short Cycle Demand

Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for MSC Industrial Direct from $88.50 to $87.50. This change reflects a more balanced risk/reward outlook amid cautious expectations for near-term U.S. demand.
Narrative Update • Oct 23

Analyst Commentary Highlights Balanced Outlook and Slight Valuation Uptick for MSC Industrial Direct

Analysts have slightly raised their fair value price target for MSC Industrial Direct from $87.83 to $88.50. They cite a balanced risk and reward outlook, along with cautious sentiment on near-term U.S. demand.
Analysis Article • Oct 11

MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To $0.87

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.'s ( NYSE:MSM ) periodic dividend will be increasing on the 26th of November to $0.87...
Narrative Update • Oct 08

In-Plant Programs And US Marketing Will Improve Operations

Analysts have lowered their price target for MSC Industrial Direct from $90.29 to $87.83. They cite a more cautious stance on near-term U.S. industrial demand and a reassessment of the stock's risk and reward profile.
Analysis Article • Aug 27

MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM) Hasn't Managed To Accelerate Its Returns

To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? One common approach is...
Analysis Article • Aug 14

Shareholders Should Be Pleased With MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.'s (NYSE:MSM) Price

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 24.9x MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. ( NYSE:MSM ) may be sending bearish...
Analysis Article • Jul 14

Here's Why MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Seeking Alpha • Jan 03

MSC Industrial Hit Hard By Operating Deleverage During This Downturn

Summary Weak activity across a range of short-cycle manufacturing markets and MSC's leverage to generally smaller manufacturers has led to noticeable revenue weakness in recent quarters. Sales could decline for a couple more quarters, though the worst of customer destocking is likely over, and management continues to invest in initiatives like in-plant inventory management and vending. Operating deleverage remains a significant near-term risk as the company continues to invest in growth and efficiency programs like in-plant, vending, inventory planning, and distribution. Short-cycle markets should rebound in FY'25, but MSC Industrial shares look fairly valued given the risks to operating margins and a lackluster history of above-market growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
User avatar
New Narrative • Oct 27

High-Touch Solutions And E-Commerce Transformations Set The Stage For Future Growth

High-touch solutions and digital enhancements are growth drivers, potentially boosting revenue and net margins through improved customer experience and national account sales.
Seeking Alpha • Oct 06

MSC Industrial: Adjusting To A New Market Reality

Summary MSC Industrial Direct has faced significant year-over-year sales declines and margin pressures, making it a mediocre performer in the MRO market. Despite a >4% dividend yield, I remain cautious due to the company's relative underperformance and uncertain outlook for 2025. Recent bolt-on acquisitions and modest leverage haven't offset the negative sales trajectory and reduced earnings guidance. With shares recovering slightly since June, I am not rushing to invest, given the availability of better MRO opportunities. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:MSM - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
8/31/20284,4573353124157
8/31/20274,2522992803789
8/31/20263,9902502403409
5/30/20263,909231220306N/A
2/28/20263,833208215301N/A
11/29/20253,807205167261N/A
8/30/20253,770199241334N/A
5/31/20253,744198264361N/A
3/1/20253,752213302407N/A
11/30/20243,795236330431N/A
8/31/20243,821259311411N/A
6/1/20243,904291334436N/A
3/2/20243,979314347443N/A
12/2/20234,006331619705N/A
9/2/20234,009343607700N/A
6/3/20233,996360597678N/A
3/4/20233,900364534605N/A
12/3/20223,801355193264N/A
9/3/20223,692340185246N/A
5/28/20223,501302159220N/A
2/26/20223,40829698163N/A
11/27/20213,320245118179N/A
8/28/20213,243217171224N/A
5/29/20213,160203272321N/A
2/27/20213,129187319360N/A
11/28/20203,141224373415N/A
8/29/20203,192251350397N/A
5/30/20203,287265304356N/A
2/29/20203,319267N/A386N/A
11/30/20193,356280N/A337N/A
8/31/20193,364289N/A328N/A
6/1/20193,359295N/A297N/A
3/2/20193,321295N/A320N/A
12/1/20183,267344N/A335N/A
9/1/20183,204329N/A340N/A
6/2/20183,120316N/A318N/A
3/3/20183,035300N/A268N/A
12/2/20172,970236N/A253N/A
9/2/20172,888231N/A247N/A
6/3/20172,879232N/A274N/A
3/4/20172,863234N/A315N/A
12/3/20162,843230N/A355N/A
9/3/20162,864230N/A401N/A
5/28/20162,846228N/A373N/A
2/27/20162,864226N/A385N/A
11/28/20152,886229N/A314N/A
8/29/20152,910230N/A250N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MSM's forecast earnings growth (10.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: MSM's earnings (10.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (18.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MSM's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MSM's revenue (4.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MSM's revenue (4.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MSM's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (24.1%)

Discover growth companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/07/06 18:42
End of Day Share Price 2026/07/02 00:00
Earnings2026/05/30
Annual Earnings2025/08/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. is covered by 29 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David MantheyBaird
Scott DavisBarclays
Scott GrahamBMO Capital Markets Equity Research