MSC Industrial Direct Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 1/6
MSC Industrial Direct's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -3.3%, while the Trade Distributors industry saw earnings growing at 7.8% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 3.5% per year. MSC Industrial Direct's return on equity is 14.9%, and it has net margins of 5.4%.
Key information
-3.27%
Earnings growth rate
-3.36%
EPS growth rate
| Trade Distributors Industry Growth | 23.44% |
| Revenue growth rate | 3.46% |
| Return on equity | 14.89% |
| Net Margin | 5.42% |
| Next Earnings Update | 01 Jul 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
MSM: Future Returns Will Depend On Rich P E Multiple Holding Up
The updated analyst price target for MSC Industrial Direct moves from about $86 to roughly $94, as analysts factor in adjusted discount rates, slightly higher revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, as well as a higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on MSC Industrial Direct reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with analysts adjusting ratings and price targets as they reassess valuation, growth assumptions and execution risks.
Sales Reorganization And Pricing Dependence Will Pressure Margins And Earnings Quality
Catalysts About MSC Industrial Direct MSC Industrial Direct supplies metalworking and MRO products and services to industrial and public sector customers. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
AI And Higher Value Solutions Will Drive Stronger Future Margins And Earnings Quality
Catalysts About MSC Industrial Direct MSC Industrial Direct supplies metalworking and MRO products and services to manufacturing, industrial and public sector customers across North America. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?MSC Industrial Direct's Dip After Earnings Isn't A Reason To Buy
Apr 01MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect JPMorgan Downgrade And Completed Buyback Program
Analysts have inched up their fair value estimate for MSC Industrial Direct to $86.20 from about $85.83, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E after recent price target revisions such as Baird's move to $94 following Q1 results and a downgrade highlighted by JPMorgan research. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the updated models after Q1 results as keeping the story intact, with the US$94 price target suggesting they still view the shares as reasonably aligned with current earnings power and P/E assumptions.MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect Neutral Q1 Reset And Completed Buyback
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on MSC Industrial Direct by $4 to $94, citing updated models after Q1 results and recent rating changes. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the reset to a US$94 price target as a way to align expectations more closely with current Q1 results, which can reduce the risk of future estimate misses.MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect Neutral Stance After Downgrade And Model Reset
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on MSC Industrial Direct by $4 to $94. They cited refreshed models after recent Q1 results and a downgrade that reflects slightly adjusted assumptions for growth, margins and future P/E multiples.MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect Neutral Stance After Downgrade And Buyback Completion
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on MSC Industrial Direct by a small amount to US$94, reflecting refreshed models after Q1 results and a slightly lower fair value estimate of about US$85.83, along with modestly adjusted assumptions for discount rate, revenue, profit margin and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates point to a more cautious stance on MSC Industrial Direct, with a focus on recalibrated valuation work after Q1 results rather than any single event.MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect Neutral Outlook After Q1 Model Reset
Narrative Update: MSC Industrial Direct Analysts nudged their price target on MSC Industrial Direct down from $98 to $94. This reflects updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, profit margins, and a slightly higher future P/E after revisiting their models following recent Q1 results.MSM: Future Returns Will Balance Discounted Outlook With Leadership Transition
Narrative Update Overview Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on MSC Industrial Direct to $94 from $98, reflecting updated modeling after Q1 results. This incorporates a fair value estimate shift from $87.50 to $86.00, a slightly higher discount rate, marginally lower revenue growth assumptions, a somewhat higher profit margin outlook, and a future P/E assumption moving from 19.94x to 18.89x.MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect Cautious Demand Outlook And Leadership Transition
Analysts have nudged their price target on MSC Industrial Direct slightly lower to approximately $87.50 from about $88.00, reflecting what they see as a more balanced risk and reward profile as they grow incrementally cautious on near-term U.S. short-cycle demand and trim out-year estimates. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates underscore a more neutral stance on MSC Industrial Direct, as cautious views on the near-term macro backdrop are balanced by confidence in the company’s longer-term positioning and disciplined capital allocation.MSM: Future Returns Will Reflect Balanced View As Short-Cycle Demand Stays Soft
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on MSC Industrial Direct to $87.50 per share. This reflects a slightly higher assumed future valuation multiple and a marginally increased discount rate, as they balance steady long term fundamentals against a more cautious near term demand outlook.MSM: Future Results Will Mirror Balanced Outlook as Near-Term Demand Softens
Narrative Update on MSC Industrial Direct: Analyst Price Target Change The analyst price target for MSC Industrial Direct remains unchanged at $87.50. Analysts point to a more balanced risk/reward outlook and reflect cautious sentiment on short-term U.S. industrial demand.MSM: Future Performance Will Reflect Balanced Risk Amid Cautious Short Cycle Demand
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for MSC Industrial Direct from $88.50 to $87.50. This change reflects a more balanced risk/reward outlook amid cautious expectations for near-term U.S. demand.Analyst Commentary Highlights Balanced Outlook and Slight Valuation Uptick for MSC Industrial Direct
Analysts have slightly raised their fair value price target for MSC Industrial Direct from $87.83 to $88.50. They cite a balanced risk and reward outlook, along with cautious sentiment on near-term U.S. demand.MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To $0.87
Oct 11
In-Plant Programs And US Marketing Will Improve Operations
Analysts have lowered their price target for MSC Industrial Direct from $90.29 to $87.83. They cite a more cautious stance on near-term U.S. industrial demand and a reassessment of the stock's risk and reward profile.MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM) Hasn't Managed To Accelerate Its Returns
Aug 27Shareholders Should Be Pleased With MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.'s (NYSE:MSM) Price
Aug 14Here's Why MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Jul 14Is Now The Time To Look At Buying MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (NYSE:MSM)?
May 29Capital Allocation Trends At MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM) Aren't Ideal
May 12MSC Industrial Hit Hard By Operating Deleverage During This Downturn
Jan 03
High-Touch Solutions And E-Commerce Transformations Set The Stage For Future Growth
High-touch solutions and digital enhancements are growth drivers, potentially boosting revenue and net margins through improved customer experience and national account sales.MSC Industrial: Adjusting To A New Market Reality
Oct 06Weakening Manufacturing Activity Is Hitting MSC Industrial Hard
Jul 16Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How MSC Industrial Direct makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 26 | 3,833 | 208 | 1,237 | 0 |
| 29 Nov 25 | 3,807 | 205 | 1,229 | 0 |
| 30 Aug 25 | 3,770 | 199 | 1,221 | 0 |
| 31 May 25 | 3,744 | 198 | 1,212 | 0 |
| 01 Mar 25 | 3,752 | 213 | 1,189 | 0 |
| 30 Nov 24 | 3,795 | 236 | 1,179 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 24 | 3,821 | 259 | 1,166 | 0 |
| 01 Jun 24 | 3,904 | 291 | 1,170 | 0 |
| 02 Mar 24 | 3,979 | 314 | 1,173 | 0 |
| 02 Dec 23 | 4,006 | 331 | 1,162 | 0 |
| 02 Sep 23 | 4,009 | 343 | 1,150 | 0 |
| 03 Jun 23 | 3,996 | 360 | 1,142 | 0 |
| 04 Mar 23 | 3,900 | 364 | 1,122 | 0 |
| 03 Dec 22 | 3,801 | 355 | 1,107 | 0 |
| 03 Sep 22 | 3,692 | 340 | 1,084 | 0 |
| 28 May 22 | 3,501 | 302 | 1,047 | 0 |
| 26 Feb 22 | 3,408 | 296 | 1,033 | 0 |
| 27 Nov 21 | 3,320 | 245 | 1,012 | 0 |
| 28 Aug 21 | 3,243 | 217 | 994 | 0 |
| 29 May 21 | 3,160 | 203 | 968 | 0 |
| 27 Feb 21 | 3,129 | 187 | 954 | 0 |
| 28 Nov 20 | 3,141 | 224 | 960 | 0 |
| 29 Aug 20 | 3,192 | 251 | 976 | 0 |
| 30 May 20 | 3,287 | 265 | 915 | 0 |
| 29 Feb 20 | 3,319 | 267 | 931 | 0 |
| 30 Nov 19 | 3,356 | 280 | 935 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 19 | 3,364 | 289 | 1,025 | 0 |
| 01 Jun 19 | 3,359 | 295 | 993 | 0 |
| 02 Mar 19 | 3,321 | 295 | 978 | 0 |
| 01 Dec 18 | 3,267 | 344 | 961 | 0 |
| 01 Sep 18 | 3,204 | 329 | 965 | 0 |
| 02 Jun 18 | 3,120 | 316 | 952 | 0 |
| 03 Mar 18 | 3,035 | 300 | 936 | 0 |
| 02 Dec 17 | 2,970 | 236 | 925 | 0 |
| 02 Sep 17 | 2,888 | 231 | 907 | 0 |
| 03 Jun 17 | 2,879 | 232 | 909 | 0 |
| 04 Mar 17 | 2,863 | 234 | 902 | 0 |
| 03 Dec 16 | 2,843 | 230 | 902 | 0 |
| 03 Sep 16 | 2,864 | 230 | 913 | 0 |
| 28 May 16 | 2,846 | 228 | 905 | 0 |
| 27 Feb 16 | 2,864 | 226 | 918 | 0 |
| 28 Nov 15 | 2,886 | 229 | 928 | 0 |
| 29 Aug 15 | 2,910 | 230 | 933 | 0 |
| 30 May 15 | 2,910 | 233 | 933 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: MSM has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: MSM's current net profit margins (5.4%) are lower than last year (5.7%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: MSM's earnings have declined by 3.3% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: MSM's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: MSM had negative earnings growth (-2.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Trade Distributors industry average (-1.7%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: MSM's Return on Equity (14.9%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/04 05:34 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/04 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/02/28 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/08/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. is covered by 28 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Manthey | Baird |
| Scott Davis | Barclays |
| Scott Graham | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |