NYSE:AL

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Air Lease Corporation, an aircraft leasing company, engages in the purchase and leasing of commercial jet transport aircraft to airlines worldwide.

Rewards

PE ratio (9.7x) is below the US market (18.9x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 22.17% per year

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

High level of non-cash earnings

Profit margins (28.8%) are lower than last year (51.8%)

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year



Snowflake Analysis

High growth potential and good value.


Similar Companies

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group

TSE:8316

Share Price & News

How has Air Lease's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: AL has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

3.8%

AL

0.9%

US Trade Distributors

2.0%

US Market


1 Year Return

31.8%

AL

17.9%

US Trade Distributors

23.6%

US Market

Return vs Industry: AL exceeded the US Trade Distributors industry which returned 22.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AL exceeded the US Market which returned 24.7% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

ALIndustryMarket
7 Day3.8%0.9%2.0%
30 Day2.6%-0.08%3.9%
90 Day13.9%9.7%12.0%
1 Year33.5%31.8%19.8%17.9%26.2%23.6%
3 Year44.9%40.4%29.4%23.8%53.2%43.3%
5 Year49.5%43.0%50.5%39.3%75.7%56.3%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Air Lease's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Air Lease undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

9.88x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: AL ($48.53) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($6.8)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AL is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: AL is good value based on its PE Ratio (9.7x) compared to the Trade Distributors industry average (17x).

PE vs Market: AL is good value based on its PE Ratio (9.7x) compared to the US market (18.9x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: AL is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.4x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: AL is good value based on its PB Ratio (1x) compared to the US Trade Distributors industry average (1.7x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Air Lease forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

20.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AL's forecast earnings growth (22.2% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: AL's earnings (22.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AL's revenue (20.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AL's revenue (20.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.5%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Air Lease performed over the past 5 years?

23.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AL has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AL's current net profit margins (28.8%) are lower than last year (51.8%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AL's earnings have grown significantly by 23.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AL's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: AL had negative earnings growth (-34.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Trade Distributors industry average (-7.3%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: AL's Return on Equity (10.3%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Air Lease's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AL's short term assets ($336.4M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($356.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: AL's short term assets ($336.4M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($15.8B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AL's debt to equity ratio (251.8%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: AL's debt to equity ratio has increased from 246.5% to 251.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AL's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (9.9%).

Interest Coverage: AL's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (2.7x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: AL has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: AL's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Air Lease's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

1.21%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company1.2%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage2.6%forecastin3Years1.1%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: AL's dividend (1.24%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.4%).

High Dividend: AL's dividend (1.24%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.66%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, AL has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: AL's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 7 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its low payout ratio (10.8%), AL's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: AL's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be thoroughly covered by earnings (6.3% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Air Lease's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

7.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

John Plueger (65yo)

3.5yrs

Tenure

US$7,672,190

Compensation

Mr. John L. Plueger has been Chief Executive Officer and President of Air Lease Corporation since July 2016 and March 2010 respectively and serves its Director since March 2010. Mr. Plueger served as Chief ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: John's total compensation ($USD7.67M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.46M).

Compensation vs Earnings: John's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

7.8yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: AL's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.8 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

7.8yrs

Average Tenure

65yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: AL's board of directors are considered experienced (7.8 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: AL insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

SellUS$464,49606 Dec 19
Grant Levy
EntityIndividual
Role
Senior Key Executive
Executive Vice President of Marketing & Commercial Affairs
Shares10,000
Max PriceUS$46.45
SellUS$327,41226 Nov 19
Marc Baer
EntityIndividual
Role
Senior Key Executive
Executive Vice President of Marketing
Shares7,000
Max PriceUS$46.77
SellUS$460,07925 Nov 19
Alex Khatibi
EntityIndividual
Role
Senior Key Executive
Executive Vice President
Shares10,000
Max PriceUS$46.01
SellUS$15,509,13714 Nov 19
Steven Udvar-Házy
EntityIndividual
Role
Chairman of the Board
Executive Chairman of the Board
Shares344,679
Max PriceUS$45.12
SellUS$686,04314 Nov 19
Gregory Willis
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Financial Officer
Executive VP & CFO
Shares15,000
Max PriceUS$45.74
SellUS$487,88414 Nov 19
Carol Forsyte
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Legal Officer
Executive VP
Shares10,691
Max PriceUS$45.64
SellUS$447,03312 Sep 19
Grant Levy
EntityIndividual
Role
Senior Key Executive
Executive Vice President of Marketing & Commercial Affairs
Shares10,000
Max PriceUS$44.70
SellUS$221,70211 Sep 19
Marc Baer
EntityIndividual
Role
Senior Key Executive
Executive Vice President of Marketing
Shares5,000
Max PriceUS$44.34
SellUS$856,08210 Sep 19
Kishore Korde
EntityIndividual
Shares20,000
Max PriceUS$42.80
SellUS$419,52330 Aug 19
Kishore Korde
EntityIndividual
Shares10,106
Max PriceUS$41.51
SellUS$405,37130 Aug 19
Alex Khatibi
EntityIndividual
Role
Senior Key Executive
Executive Vice President
Shares10,000
Max PriceUS$41.07
SellUS$390,00021 Aug 19
Marc Baer
EntityIndividual
Role
Senior Key Executive
Executive Vice President of Marketing
Shares10,000
Max PriceUS$39.00
SellUS$8,095,14020 Aug 19
Steven Udvar-Házy
EntityIndividual
Role
Chairman of the Board
Executive Chairman of the Board
Shares209,773
Max PriceUS$38.59
SellUS$5,650,45115 Aug 19
Steven Udvar-Házy
EntityIndividual
Role
Chairman of the Board
Executive Chairman of the Board
Shares148,923
Max PriceUS$37.94

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 6.3%.


Management Team

  • Steve Udvar-Házy (73yo)

    Executive Chairman of the Board

    • Tenure: 3.5yrs
    • Compensation: US$8.08m
  • John Plueger (65yo)

    CEO, President & Director

    • Tenure: 3.5yrs
    • Compensation: US$7.67m
  • Grant Levy (56yo)

    Executive Vice President of Marketing & Commercial Affairs

    • Compensation: US$3.05m
  • Marc Baer (54yo)

    Executive Vice President of Marketing

    • Compensation: US$2.69m
  • Alex Khatibi (58yo)

    Executive Vice President

    • Tenure: 9.8yrs
  • Greg Willis (40yo)

    Executive VP & CFO

    • Tenure: 7.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$2.34m
  • Carol Forsyte (56yo)

    Executive VP

    • Tenure: 7.3yrs
  • Jie Chen (55yo)

    Executive VP & MD of Asia

    • Tenure: 9.4yrs
    • Compensation: US$3.52m
  • Courtney McKeown

    Vice President of Human Resources

    • Mary Liz DePalma

      Assistant Vice President of Investor Relations


      Board Members

      • Matt Hart (67yo)

        Independent Director

        • Tenure: 9.7yrs
        • Compensation: US$245.00k
      • Marshall Larsen (71yo)

        Independent Director

        • Tenure: 5.7yrs
        • Compensation: US$210.00k
      • Ron Sugar (70yo)

        Independent Director

        • Tenure: 9.8yrs
        • Compensation: US$230.00k
      • Robert Milton (58yo)

        Lead Independent Director

        • Compensation: US$295.00k
      • Steve Udvar-Házy (73yo)

        Executive Chairman of the Board

        • Tenure: 3.5yrs
        • Compensation: US$8.08m
      • John Plueger (65yo)

        CEO, President & Director

        • Tenure: 3.5yrs
        • Compensation: US$7.67m
      • Cheryl Krongard (63yo)

        Independent Director

        • Tenure: 6.1yrs
        • Compensation: US$210.00k
      • Ian Saines (56yo)

        Independent Director

        • Tenure: 9.6yrs
        • Compensation: US$215.00k
      • Susan McCaw (57yo)

        Independent Director

        • Tenure: 0.2yrs

      Company Information

      Air Lease Corporation's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


      Key Information

      • Name: Air Lease Corporation
      • Ticker: AL
      • Exchange: NYSE
      • Founded: 2010
      • Industry: Trading Companies and Distributors
      • Sector: Capital Goods
      • Market Cap: US$5.570b
      • Shares outstanding: 112.70m
      • Website: https://www.airleasecorp.com

      Number of Employees


      Location

      • Air Lease Corporation
      • 2000 Avenue of the Stars
      • Suite 1000N
      • Los Angeles
      • California
      • 90067
      • United States

      Listings

      TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
      ALNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesClass A Common StockUSUSDApr 2011
      AVLADB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesClass A Common StockDEEURApr 2011
      AL.PRANYSE (New York Stock Exchange)6.150 NON CUM AUSUSDFeb 2019

      Biography

      Air Lease Corporation, an aircraft leasing company, engages in the purchase and leasing of commercial jet transport aircraft to airlines worldwide. The company also sells aircraft from its operating lease portfolio to third parties, including other leasing companies, financial services companies, and airlines. In addition, it provides fleet management services to investors and owners of aircraft portfolios. As of December 31, 2018, the company owned a fleet of 275 aircraft, including 207 narrowbody jet aircraft and 68 widebody jet aircraft. Air Lease Corporation was founded in 2010 and is based in Los Angeles, California. 


      Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

      All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
      DataLast Updated (UTC time)
      Company Analysis2020/01/19 00:16
      End of Day Share Price2020/01/17 00:00
      Earnings2019/09/30
      Annual Earnings2018/12/31


      Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.