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Air Lease Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 4/6
Air Lease has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 27.1%, while the Trade Distributors industry saw earnings growing at 8.1% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 8.8% per year. Air Lease's return on equity is 12.8%, and it has net margins of 34.6%.
Key information
27.15%
Earnings growth rate
27.60%
EPS growth rate
| Trade Distributors Industry Growth | 23.44% |
| Revenue growth rate | 8.85% |
| Return on equity | 12.85% |
| Net Margin | 34.62% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Dec 2025 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Mar 28
AL: New Aircraft Deliveries And Stable Margins Will Support Fair Outlook
Analysts have kept their $65 price target for Air Lease unchanged, citing relatively steady fair value assumptions, along with only modest updates to the discount rate and future P/E inputs. What's in the News Air Lease delivered one new Boeing 737-8 aircraft to Air Canada, expanding the lessor's presence with a major North American carrier (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 09
AL: New Lease Deliveries And Stable Margins Will Support Steady Outlook
Analysts have kept their fair value estimate for Air Lease steady at $65.00, with a slightly lower discount rate and a modestly reduced forward P/E assumption supporting the updated price target rationale. What's in the News Air Lease delivered one new Boeing 737-8 aircraft to Air Canada, the first of five 737-8s scheduled to be delivered to the airline in 2026 under existing lease arrangements (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 23
AL: Lease Deliveries And Margin Outlook Will Support Steady Future Prospects
Analysts have maintained their $65 price target on Air Lease, citing updated assumptions that combine a slightly higher discount rate, a lower future P/E, and a materially higher profit margin outlook as key factors supporting this unchanged valuation view. What's in the News Air Lease delivered one new Boeing 737-8 aircraft to Air Canada, the first of five 737-8 aircraft scheduled to be delivered to the airline in 2026 on lease from the company (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 08
AL: New Lease Deliveries And Steady Outlook Will Shape Balanced Prospects
Analysts have held their Air Lease fair value estimate steady at US$65.00 per share, citing slightly lower discount rate, revenue growth, and profit margin assumptions, along with a modestly higher future P/E multiple, to justify the unchanged target. What's in the News Air Lease delivered one new Boeing 737-8 aircraft to Air Canada, the first of five 737-8s scheduled to be delivered to the airline in 2026 on lease from Air Lease (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 25
AL: Lease Deliveries And Merger Vote Will Shape Steady Forward Outlook
Analysts have kept their fair value estimate for Air Lease steady at $65.00, citing only small adjustments to their discount rate, revenue growth outlook, profit margin assumptions, and future P/E expectations rather than any major change in the core thesis. What's in the News Delivered one new Airbus A321-200neoXLR aircraft on long term lease to Uzbekistan based airline Qanot Sharq, the first A321XLR in that carrier's fleet and the first of four A321XLRs scheduled to come from Air Lease.Narrative Update • Jan 10
AL: Future Lease Deliveries And Merger Vote Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have adjusted their price target on Air Lease to US$65.00 from US$66.67, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E estimates. What's in the News Air Lease delivered one new Airbus A321-200neoXLR aircraft to Uzbekistan based airline Qanot Sharq, the first A321XLR in the airline's fleet and the first of four on long term lease from Air Lease (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Dec 26
AL: Slower Expansion And Merger Vote Will Shape Balanced Risk Profile
Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Air Lease by 1.00 dollar to 68.00 dollars. They cite slightly slower expected revenue growth, lower projected profit margins, and a higher discount rate that is only partly offset by a richer assumed future price to earnings multiple.
Narrative Update • Dec 12
AL: Future Leases And Margin Pressure Will Likely Keep Shares Balanced
Analysts have raised their price target on Air Lease to approximately 65.00 dollars from about 50.99 dollars, citing expectations for faster top line growth and a higher future earnings multiple that more than offset slightly higher discount rates and margin compression. What's in the News Air Lease has scheduled a Special and Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for December 18, 2025, to address key corporate matters (Key Developments) The company announced a long term lease agreement with startup carrier Sun PhuQuoc Airways for one new Airbus A321-200neo, with delivery planned in 2027 (Key Developments) Air Lease signed long term lease agreements with Magnifica Air for six new Airbus jets, including four A220-300s and two A321-200neos, all slated for delivery in 2027 to support the startup airline's launch plans (Key Developments) Valuation Changes The Fair Value Estimate has risen significantly, from about 51 dollars to 65 dollars per share.Seeking Alpha • Oct 01
Why Air Lease's $65 Offer Adds Up On Paper... And Still Fails Investors
Summary Air Lease Corporation is subject to a $65/share acquisition offer, which aligns with book value but is not compelling for investors. Falling interest rates could improve AL's net margins, but the offer reflects historically thin gain-on-sale margins for AL and a younger fleet, limiting upside. AerCap is unlikely to bid for Air Lease Corporation, as its acquisition strategy favors discounts to book value and distressed sellers, which doesn't fit AL's profile. While the $65 offer makes financial sense for acquirers, it remains underwhelming for AL shareholders and management should seek a better deal. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Sep 18
Fuel Efficient Aircraft Demand Will Create Leasing Opportunities Amid Risks
Air Lease's consensus price target has been raised, primarily reflecting an expansion in its Future P/E multiple while net profit margins remained stable, resulting in a new fair value estimate of $66.67. What's in the News Sumitomo Corporation, Apollo, Brookfield, and SMBC Aviation Capital agreed to acquire Air Lease Corporation for $7.4 billion; Air Lease stockholders will receive $65.00 per share in cash.Narrative Update • Sep 03
Fuel Efficient Aircraft Demand Will Create Leasing Opportunities Amid Risks
The modest reduction in Air Lease's analyst price target is primarily driven by a lower future P/E multiple, with the fair value falling from $65.67 to $62.75. What's in the News Sumitomo Corporation, Apollo, Brookfield, and SMBC Aviation Capital agreed to acquire Air Lease for $7.4 billion, with shareholders to receive $65.00 per share in cash; the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.Analysis Article • Aug 11
We Think That There Are Issues Underlying Air Lease's (NYSE:AL) Earnings
Air Lease Corporation ( NYSE:AL ) announced strong profits, but the stock was stagnant. Our analysis suggests that this...Analysis Article • Aug 07
Air Lease Corporation Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
NYSE:AL 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Air Lease's Fair Values from the Community and select yours Air Lease...Analysis Article • Jul 26
If EPS Growth Is Important To You, Air Lease (NYSE:AL) Presents An Opportunity
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...Seeking Alpha • Apr 29
Air Lease: Are Repurchases Imminent With Q1 Earnings?
Summary With the recent $329 million in insurance recoveries, Air Lease may have reached its targeted 2.5x debt-to-equity level, opening the door to potential repurchases. Air Lease trades at a substantial discount to an estimated $71-$72 in book value, making repurchases at this level enormously accretive. The weaker dollar could benefit Air Lease and lead to increased aircraft sales beyond the $2 billion guidance. The retirement of chairman and founder Steven Hazy, along with the substantial discount to book value and attractive order book, could make Air Lease an acquisition target. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 24
Air Lease Corporation: Upside Despite Interest Headwinds
Summary Air Lease Corporation's stock declined due to geopolitical uncertainties, impacting demand and increasing financing costs, despite stable aircraft values. The company’s revenue rose slightly, but higher interest expenses and depreciation led to a significant drop in net income. The annualized net spread fell from 2.9% to 1.7% due to increased interest expenses and depreciation. Despite current challenges, I maintain a buy rating with a $56.34 price target, noting long-term potential and a stock trading below book value. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 28
Air Lease Corporation: Aircraft Values Are Firmly Supported And So Is Upside For The Stock
Summary Air Lease Corporation's stock has risen 30% since August, driven by a 4.7% revenue increase and higher aircraft sales despite higher operating expenses. Net spread remains pressured due to the inability to pass higher interest rates on existing leases, but post-pandemic leases in 2025 should improve net spread. Valuation based on book value suggests a 6-11% upside, while EV/EBITDA valuation projects a $61.79 price target for 2025, maintaining a buy rating. Despite net spread compression, high demand for airplanes and strong balance sheet value make Air Lease Corporation a relatively safe investment with future upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Aug 30
OEM Delays And Flaws Mix With Strong Demand And Order Book To Sway Future Finances
Persistent OEM delays and manufacturing flaws have resulted in a demand surge for Air Lease's delivery slots, boosting lease rates and aircraft values.Seeking Alpha • Aug 04
Air Lease Stock Crashes On Recession Fears, But Remains A Buy
Summary Air Lease Corporation stock tumbled 14% due to negative market sentiment. Margins under pressure with decreased revenues and increased expenses. Despite recession fears, Air Lease Corporation remains a buy with double-digit upside based on book value and enterprise value. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Air Lease makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 25 | 3,016 | 1,044 | 241 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 2,908 | 967 | 240 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 2,873 | 923 | 240 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 2,809 | 639 | 241 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 2,734 | 372 | 220 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 2,737 | 490 | 224 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 2,707 | 521 | 223 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 2,712 | 552 | 223 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 2,685 | 573 | 221 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 2,570 | 497 | 211 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 2,472 | 475 | 205 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 2,357 | 459 | 196 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 2,317 | -139 | 172 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 2,313 | -131 | 169 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 2,276 | -131 | 161 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 2,210 | -152 | 150 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 2,088 | 408 | 152 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 1,980 | 373 | 127 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 1,949 | 390 | 116 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 1,979 | 448 | 113 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 2,015 | 501 | 113 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 2,075 | 555 | 127 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 2,112 | 590 | 140 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 2,062 | 570 | 143 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 2,017 | 575 | 144 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 1,918 | 552 | 138 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 1,838 | 547 | 129 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 1,765 | 538 | 122 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 1,680 | 511 | 115 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 1,628 | 844 | 115 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 1,554 | 796 | 109 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 1,537 | 782 | 112 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 1,516 | 756 | 111 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 1,488 | 382 | 108 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 1,467 | 376 | 108 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 1,436 | 367 | 104 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 1,419 | 375 | 100 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 1,375 | 359 | 98 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 1,333 | 343 | 97 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 1,288 | 327 | 94 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 1,223 | 253 | 94 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 1,182 | 243 | 96 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 1,131 | 228 | 96 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: AL has a large one-off gain of $708.6M impacting its last 12 months of financial results to 31st December, 2025.
Growing Profit Margin: AL's current net profit margins (34.6%) are higher than last year (13.6%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: AL's earnings have grown significantly by 27.1% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: AL's earnings growth over the past year (180.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (27.1% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: AL earnings growth over the past year (180.6%) exceeded the Trade Distributors industry -2.2%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: AL's Return on Equity (12.8%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/04/07 23:15 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/04/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Air Lease Corporation is covered by 18 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Garrett Chase | Barclays |
| Terry Ma | Barclays |
| James Fotheringham | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |