How AerCap’s US$1 Billion Buyback and Cargo Push Could Impact AerCap Holdings (AER) Investors

• AerCap Holdings N.V. recently authorized a share repurchase program of up to US$1,000 million through June 30, 2026, alongside new leasing deals and the first delivery of a Boeing 777-300ERSF freighter to Fly Meta Leasing.
• Together, the sizeable buyback and expanding freighter and narrowbody leasing activity highlight AerCap’s ongoing focus on capital returns and strengthening its position in the cargo segment.
• We’ll now explore how AerCap’s US$1,000 million share repurchase authorization could reshape the company’s investment narrative and future capital priorities.

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AerCap Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To own AerCap, you need to believe that tight aircraft supply, solid lease demand and disciplined capital allocation can offset cyclicality, credit risk and eventual normalization in today’s strong market conditions. The new US$1,000 million buyback and fresh cargo-focused leases support the near term capital return story, but do not materially change the key short term catalyst of high lease utilization and rates, or the main risk of overextending balance sheet flexibility if conditions turn.

The most relevant update here is AerCap’s authorization of up to US$1,000 million in share repurchases through June 30, 2026, funded by cash on hand and operating cash flow. For investors, this sits directly alongside existing catalysts such as ongoing deleveraging and disciplined fleet investment, and it raises fresh questions about how far AerCap can push capital returns without amplifying its exposure to higher leverage in a downturn.

Yet investors should also be aware that if AerCap continues committing large sums to new aircraft and buybacks while leverage trends higher, then...

Read the full narrative on AerCap Holdings (it's free!)

AerCap Holdings' narrative projects $8.4 billion revenue and $1.4 billion earnings by 2028. This implies 1.7% yearly revenue growth and an earnings decrease of $1.5 billion from $2.9 billion today.

Uncover how AerCap Holdings' forecasts yield a $148.00 fair value, a 6% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Two members of the Simply Wall St Community see AerCap’s fair value between US$148 and about US$530, reflecting very different return expectations. Against that backdrop, the tension between aggressive capital returns and the risk of higher leverage in a downturn is a key factor that could influence how the company performs and invites you to consider several contrasting viewpoints.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on AerCap Holdings - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own AerCap Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your AerCap Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free AerCap Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate AerCap Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In AerCap Holdings?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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