A Look At Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Valuation After NASA Deals Space ETF Interest And Lanteris Acquisition

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is back in focus after its stock surged alongside renewed interest in space ETFs, fresh NASA contract wins, and 2026 revenue guidance tied to the Lanteris Space Systems acquisition.

See our latest analysis for Intuitive Machines.

That enthusiasm has shown up in the chart, with the share price at US$28.97 and a 1-day share price return of 20.16%, a 90-day share price return of 55.59%, and a 1-year total shareholder return of 204.95%. Momentum appears to be building as investors react to NASA contracts, the Lanteris deal, and space ETF interest.

If you are looking beyond Intuitive Machines and want more space related ideas, this could be a good moment to scan 32 robotics and automation stocks

With revenue growing, new NASA work in hand, and 2026 sales guidance tied to the Lanteris deal, the key question now is whether Intuitive Machines is still undervalued or if the market is already pricing in that future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 26% Overvalued

Using a fair value of $23 from the most followed narrative against the last close at $28.97, the current price sits well above that narrative anchor according to sorkdhkddlek.

While the trajectory toward positive Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 is clear, the current stock price reflects a "perfection premium" that overlooks recent share dilution.​

Considering the $15M in recent insider selling within the $23 to $25 range and the high 1.4 beta volatility, we view $23.21 as the objective "Going Concern" value.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what turns a fast growing backlog and data services push into a lower fair value per share than today. The narrative leans on aggressive revenue expansion, margin repair, and a much larger share count to anchor that number. Want to see exactly how those moving parts reshape future earnings power and justify a tighter valuation band.

Result: Fair Value of $23 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, recent share dilution and execution risk around the 2026 revenue and margin targets could quickly challenge this overvaluation case if outcomes differ from expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this Intuitive Machines narrative.

Another View: DCF Points the Other Way

That $23 fair value from the popular narrative leans heavily on a revenue multiple and share dilution. By contrast, our DCF model values Intuitive Machines at $41.33 per share, with the current $28.97 price trading at a 29.9% discount to that estimate. Which story do you think tells the truer picture?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Intuitive Machines for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 49 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With such a split between the narratives, how comfortable are you with the current setup? This is the moment to review the data yourself, weigh both the potential risks and rewards, and decide whether the story fits your own risk tolerance and time horizon using 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Intuitive Machines has your attention, do not stop here. Use this momentum to scan other potential opportunities that might suit your goals and risk comfort.

• Target steadier growth candidates by reviewing companies identified as 71 resilient stocks with low risk scores that may better fit a cautious approach.
• Hunt for potential bargains by checking stocks highlighted in the screener containing 21 high quality undiscovered gems before the crowd fully notices them.
• Strengthen the quality of your watchlist by scanning companies featured in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (44 results) that prioritise financial resilience.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com