Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Stock Overview
Provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 4/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 5/6 |
| Financial Health | 2/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
HLMN Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Hillman Solutions Corp. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$7.47 |
| 52 Week High | US$10.85 |
| 52 Week Low | US$6.55 |
| Beta | 1.48 |
| 1 Month Change | -13.54% |
| 3 Month Change | -25.75% |
| 1 Year Change | -7.78% |
| 3 Year Change | -6.51% |
| 5 Year Change | -28.86% |
| Change since IPO | -23.85% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Apr 26
HLMN: Conservative Guidance And Pullback Will Support 2026 Earnings Rebound Potential
Analysts have trimmed their 12 month price target on Hillman Solutions to $14, a $1 reduction from prior views, citing slightly lower revenue and EBITDA expectations following mixed Q4 results and guidance they describe as conservative. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are trimming targets but still see upside potential in Hillman Solutions, even after the stock moved off more than 10% following Q4 results and updated guidance.Narrative Update • Apr 12
HLMN: Conservative Guidance And Pullback Will Support Future Earnings Rebound Potential
Hillman Solutions' consensus analyst price target has eased to $14, as analysts factor in slightly lower revenue and EBITDA expectations alongside what they describe as solid Q4 results and conservative guidance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are trimming price targets slightly to US$14 while maintaining a positive stance on Hillman Solutions, pointing to what they see as solid Q4 execution and guidance that they view as conservative rather than negative.Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 26
HLMN: Conservative Guidance And Pullback Will Support 2026 Earnings Rebound Potential
Analysts have trimmed their 12 month price target on Hillman Solutions to $14, a $1 reduction from prior views, citing slightly lower revenue and EBITDA expectations following mixed Q4 results and guidance they describe as conservative. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are trimming targets but still see upside potential in Hillman Solutions, even after the stock moved off more than 10% following Q4 results and updated guidance.Narrative Update • Apr 12
HLMN: Conservative Guidance And Pullback Will Support Future Earnings Rebound Potential
Hillman Solutions' consensus analyst price target has eased to $14, as analysts factor in slightly lower revenue and EBITDA expectations alongside what they describe as solid Q4 results and conservative guidance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are trimming price targets slightly to US$14 while maintaining a positive stance on Hillman Solutions, pointing to what they see as solid Q4 execution and guidance that they view as conservative rather than negative.Seeking Alpha • Mar 31
Hillman Solutions: Market Share Gains And Pricing Power To Navigate Uncertainty
Summary Hillman Solutions Corp. earns a Buy rating, trading at a 25% discount to peers, with strong supply chain diversification and market share initiatives. HLMN is reducing Chinese supplier exposure from 49% to a targeted 20%, enhancing supply chain resilience and earnings visibility. FY2026 revenue guidance is $1.6–$1.7 billion, driven by new business wins and pricing, though market volume remains a headwind. Margins are expected to normalize in FY2026 as higher input costs offset prior price/cost spread benefits; adjusted gross margin is guided to 46–47%. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Mar 28
HLMN: Conservative Guidance Reset Will Support Future Upside From Recent Pullback
Analysts have trimmed their blended price target for Hillman Solutions by about $1 to $14, reflecting slightly lower Street expectations for revenue and EBITDA after recent Q4 results and a guidance update that is being characterized as conservative. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have been trimming price targets for Hillman Solutions, bringing them closer to the current fundamental outlook after Q4 results and updated guidance.Narrative Update • Mar 12
HLMN: Conservative Guidance And Pullback Will Support Measured Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Hillman Solutions to $14 from $15, citing slightly lower consensus revenue and EBITDA forecasts and a cautious outlook despite recent Q4 results that they describe as solid to mixed. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have trimmed their price targets on Hillman Solutions to US$14 from US$15, framing the stock’s recent pullback of more than 10% as a reaction to modestly lower consensus revenue and EBITDA estimates and an outlook they describe as conservative.Narrative Update • Feb 26
HLMN: Conservative Guidance And Pullback Will Set Up Earnings Rebound Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Hillman Solutions to $14 from $15, citing slightly lower consensus revenue and EBITDA estimates, along with what they view as conservative guidance following mixed but solid Q4 results. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are generally framing the post earnings pullback as a reaction to cautious guidance and small adjustments to estimates, rather than a shift in their longer term view on Hillman Solutions.Analysis Article • Feb 16
Market Participants Recognise Hillman Solutions Corp.'s (NASDAQ:HLMN) Earnings
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 19x, you may...Narrative Update • Feb 11
HLMN: Steady Outlook And Refined Assumptions Will Support Measured Future Returns
Analysts have slightly adjusted their fair value view on Hillman Solutions to $10.00, reflecting modest tweaks to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin assumptions and a future P/E of about 27.5x that together support a largely unchanged price target rationale. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Modelled fair value remains unchanged at $10.00 per share.Narrative Update • Jan 27
HLMN: Steady Outlook And Buybacks Will Support Measured Future Returns
Analysts have raised their price target for Hillman Solutions slightly, to US$10.00 from US$10.00. This reflects updated assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E that are broadly consistent with prior views.Narrative Update • Jan 11
HLMN: Stable Sales Outlook And Margin Gains Will Support Measured Returns
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target on Hillman Solutions, making a small adjustment to account for somewhat softer revenue growth expectations and a marginally lower future P/E multiple, partially offset by modestly higher projected profit margins. What's in the News Hillman Solutions reiterated its full year 2025 net sales guidance at US$1.535b to US$1.575b, matching its prior range and providing a clear reference point for management's current expectations (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Dec 14
HLMN: Revenue Outlook And Margins Will Support Measured Future Share Performance
Analysts have nudged their price target on Hillman Solutions modestly higher to reflect slightly faster expected revenue growth, improved profit margin assumptions, and a lower projected future P/E multiple, leaving their estimate of fair value at approximately $10.00 per share. What's in the News Company reiterated its 2025 full year net sales guidance, maintaining the expected range at $1.535 billion to $1.575 billion, reflecting its stated confidence in its current growth outlook (Key Developments) Hillman completed a share repurchase tranche between July 31, 2025 and September 27, 2025, buying back 325,584 shares, or about 0.16% of shares outstanding, for $3.16 million under its August 5, 2025 buyback authorization (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately $10.00 per share, indicating no revision to the analyst estimate of intrinsic value.Analysis Article • Nov 26
Should You Think About Buying Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) Now?
Hillman Solutions Corp. ( NASDAQ:HLMN ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price movement...Analysis Article • Oct 09
We Think Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • Sep 13
We Ran A Stock Scan For Earnings Growth And Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN) Passed With Ease
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...Analysis Article • Aug 28
Are Investors Undervaluing Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) By 33%?
Key Insights Hillman Solutions' estimated fair value is US$14.94 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Hillman...Analysis Article • Aug 08
Results: Hillman Solutions Corp. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
NasdaqGM:HLMN 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Hillman Solutions's Fair Values from the Community and select...
Narrative Update • Aug 07
US Housing And Omni Retail Expansion Will Foster Value
With both Net Profit Margin and Discount Rate remaining stable, analysts see no change in Hillman Solutions’ fair value, maintaining the consensus price target at $10.56. What's in the News Hillman Solutions raised full-year 2025 net sales guidance to $1.535–$1.575 billion from previous $1.495–$1.575 billion range.Analysis Article • Aug 02
Hillman Solutions Corp.'s (NASDAQ:HLMN) Shares Not Telling The Full Story
You may think that with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1x Hillman Solutions Corp. ( NASDAQ:HLMN ) is a stock...Analysis Article • Jun 27
At US$7.07, Is Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) Worth Looking At Closely?
Hillman Solutions Corp. ( NASDAQ:HLMN ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price movement...Analysis Article • Apr 30
Take Care Before Diving Into The Deep End On Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN)
Hillman Solutions Corp.'s ( NASDAQ:HLMN ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.9x might make it look like a buy right...Analysis Article • Mar 29
Here's Why Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Jan 13
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Hillman Solutions Corp.'s (NASDAQ:HLMN) P/S
With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 1.6x in the Machinery industry in the United States, you...Analysis Article • Dec 09
Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...Analysis Article • Sep 18
Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) Not Flying Under The Radar
There wouldn't be many who think Hillman Solutions Corp.'s ( NASDAQ:HLMN ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.4x is...
New Narrative • Sep 12
Cost Controls And Decisive Acquisitions Set To Fuel Robust Earnings Growth
Hillman Solutions' focus on cost control and margin management is set to enhance bottom-line performance and adjusted EBITDA outlook.Analysis Article • Aug 14
Shareholders Can Be Confident That Hillman Solutions' (NASDAQ:HLMN) Earnings Are High Quality
The subdued stock price reaction suggests that Hillman Solutions Corp.'s ( NASDAQ:HLMN ) strong earnings didn't offer...Analysis Article • Jun 20
Revenues Tell The Story For Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN)
It's not a stretch to say that Hillman Solutions Corp.'s ( NASDAQ:HLMN ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.2x right...Seeking Alpha • May 08
Hillman Solutions: Ready For Tuck-In Acquisitions
Summary A much-improved balance sheet has created the opportunity for the company to pursue tuck-in acquisitions that fit Hillman's wide-moat strategy. Synergistic acquisitions supplement organic growth initiatives until existing home sales recover. Hillman Solutions reported 1Q'24 results with expected flat sales and improving margins and cash flows. HLMN stock is currently undervalued despite solid execution. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 27
Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) Shares Could Be 40% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Key Insights The projected fair value for Hillman Solutions is US$17.18 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity...Analysis Article • Mar 01
Investors Appear Satisfied With Hillman Solutions Corp.'s (NASDAQ:HLMN) Prospects
With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 1.4x in the Machinery industry in the United States, you...Seeking Alpha • Feb 26
Hillman Solutions: Buoyant In A Bad Housing Market
Summary Hillman Solutions' wide competitive moat allowed it to generate strong free cash flows, improve margins, and strengthen the balance sheet in 2023. Sales were relatively flat despite weak store traffic at customers' retail stores as the company won new business to offset the declines. While 2024 may be another challenging year for the industry, HLMN is expected to increase margins and use tuck-in acquisitions to counter expected price givebacks. The company is poised to benefit greatly from the eventual recovery in existing home sales. HLMN stock is undervalued, creating a margin of safety for investors. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 26
Should You Think About Buying Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) Now?
While Hillman Solutions Corp. ( NASDAQ:HLMN ) might not have the largest market cap around , it led the NASDAQGM...Analysis Article • Oct 04
There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For Hillman Solutions' (NASDAQ:HLMN) Returns On Capital
If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Amongst other things, we'll want to...Analysis Article • Sep 11
Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) Shares Could Be 45% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Key Insights The projected fair value for Hillman Solutions is US$15.75 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity...Analysis Article • Jul 29
Why Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) Could Be Worth Watching
While Hillman Solutions Corp. ( NASDAQ:HLMN ) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a...Analysis Article • Jun 26
Hillman Solutions Corp.'s (NASDAQ:HLMN) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk
There wouldn't be many who think Hillman Solutions Corp.'s ( NASDAQ:HLMN ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.1x is...Analysis Article • Apr 08
Hillman Solutions Corp.'s (NASDAQ:HLMN) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 93% Above Its Share Price
Key Insights Hillman Solutions' estimated fair value is US$15.17 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Hillman...Analysis Article • Feb 22
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN)
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? In a...Shareholder Returns
| HLMN | US Machinery | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -5.2% | -0.4% | 1.1% |
| 1Y | -7.8% | 42.1% | 26.7% |
Return vs Industry: HLMN underperformed the US Machinery industry which returned 42.4% over the past year.
Return vs Market: HLMN underperformed the US Market which returned 25.4% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| HLMN volatility | |
|---|---|
| HLMN Average Weekly Movement | 6.0% |
| Machinery Industry Average Movement | 6.6% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.2% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: HLMN has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: HLMN's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | 3,986 | JMA Adinolfi | www.hillmangroup.com |
Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The company offers automotive products, such as belts and chains, brake and fuel lines, and carburetor and throttles; clamps, clips, and couplers; spacers, bushings, and bearings; and thread repair, electrical, plugs, and wheel parts. It also provides fuses, breakers, and switches; cables and wires; grommets; light bulbs and indicators; sockets and adaptors; engraving products; fasteners, including anchors, bolts, drill bits, hurricanes, nails, pins, rings, rivets, screws, sockets, spacers, staples, threaded inserts and rods, ties, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and wood parts; and fluid flow components.
Hillman Solutions Corp. Fundamentals Summary
| HLMN fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$1.47b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$35.89m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$1.56b |
40.8x
P/E Ratio0.9x
P/S RatioIs HLMN overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| HLMN income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$1.56b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$806.63m |
| Gross Profit | US$756.32m |
| Other Expenses | US$720.43m |
| Earnings | US$35.89m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 28, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 0.18 |
| Gross Margin | 48.39% |
| Net Profit Margin | 2.30% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 58.4% |
How did HLMN perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/14 06:07 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/14 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/28 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/27 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Hillman Solutions Corp. is covered by 10 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Manthey | Baird |
| Matthew Bouley | Barclays |
| Reuben Garner | Benchmark Company |