Results: Hillman Solutions Corp. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) defied analyst predictions to release its second-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.3% to hit US$403m. Hillman Solutions also reported a statutory profit of US$0.08, which was an impressive 38% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Hillman Solutions' eight analysts is for revenues of US$1.56b in 2025. This reflects a credible 3.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 89% to US$0.21. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.55b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.16 in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a very substantial lift in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

See our latest analysis for Hillman Solutions

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 11% to US$11.91. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hillman Solutions at US$15.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$10.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Hillman Solutions' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 8.0% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.6% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Hillman Solutions is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Hillman Solutions' earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Hillman Solutions analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Hillman Solutions that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.