How Investors May Respond To Blue Bird (BLBD) Raising 2025 Revenue Guidance After Strong Earnings

• Blue Bird Corporation recently reported third quarter earnings, posting sales of US$398.01 million and net income of US$36.46 million, both higher than the same period last year, along with updated full-year 2025 revenue guidance of approximately US$1.45 billion.
• The company’s ability to achieve year-over-year growth in both revenue and net income is accompanied by a tightening of its annual financial outlook, suggesting continued momentum in its operational performance.
• With full-year 2025 revenue guidance now set at about US$1.45 billion, we’ll explore how this updated outlook may influence Blue Bird’s longer-term growth narrative.

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Blue Bird Investment Narrative Recap

To invest in Blue Bird Corporation, I would need to have confidence in the company’s execution on capturing both traditional and electric vehicle school bus demand, while managing cost pressures from supply chain or policy disruptions. The recent upward revision to full-year 2025 revenue guidance echoes ongoing momentum and supports the key short-term catalyst, delivering on a large and growing backlog. However, this positive news does not remove the major risk: potential policy changes, such as federal funding pauses, that could quickly impact EV sales and margins.

The August 2025 announcement of a US$100 million share repurchase program stands out as highly relevant, supporting shareholder value alongside earnings momentum. While repurchases can be constructive, their impact on long-term performance depends on Blue Bird’s ability to consistently grow sales in both ICE and EV segments, particularly as industry policy support fluctuates.

On the other hand, if delays or changes in EPA funding slow the deployment of electric buses, investors should be aware that...

Read the full narrative on Blue Bird (it's free!)

Blue Bird's narrative projects $1.7 billion in revenue and $149.5 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 7.5% yearly revenue growth and a $41.4 million earnings increase from today's $108.1 million.

Uncover how Blue Bird's forecasts yield a $51.57 fair value, a 17% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community members estimate Blue Bird’s fair value between US$51.57 and US$111.01 per share, showing a broad range of outlooks. With the company’s backlog acting as a growth catalyst, take a closer look at how your assumptions align with these widely differing viewpoints.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Blue Bird - why the stock might be worth just $51.57!

Build Your Own Blue Bird Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Blue Bird research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Blue Bird research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Blue Bird's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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