AAON (AAON) Stock Overview
Engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 2/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 1/6 |
| Financial Health | 3/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
+ 1 more risk
AAON Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 8 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
AAON, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$114.16 |
| 52 Week High | US$150.46 |
| 52 Week Low | US$62.00 |
| Beta | 1.41 |
| 1 Month Change | -5.75% |
| 3 Month Change | 22.53% |
| 1 Year Change | 48.59% |
| 3 Year Change | 72.19% |
| 5 Year Change | 181.88% |
| Change since IPO | 190,640.34% |
Recent News & Updates
Seeking Alpha • Jul 04
AAON's Plunge Was Well Deserved
Summary AAON, Inc. remains rated a soft 'sell' due to valuation concerns despite strong operational performance driven by data center investments. The recent share price decline of 22% since May reflects overvaluation, even as revenue and backlog growth remain robust, especially in the BASX and Coil Products segments. Profit margins are under pressure, particularly in the AAON Oklahoma segment, raising concerns about the sustainability of current profitability as sales expand. Even under aggressive growth scenarios, AAON trades at lofty multiples; a further 10% price decline may justify a 'hold' rating if data center momentum persists. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 30
AAON: Data Center Cooling Backlog Will Support Margins Despite Profitability Concerns
Analysts have raised their price target on AAON to $143.50 from $122.75, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E that were reflected in recent Street research. What's in the News AAON raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 40% to 45%, citing record backlog levels, expanded production capacity, and improved execution, with management highlighting visibility from a total backlog of US$2.13b, sourced from recent Street research on BASX driven data center cooling demand.Analysis Article • Jun 17
AAON (AAON) Stock Could Be 8.6% Overvalued After 2026 Growth Outlook Lift
AAON (AAON) raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 40% to 45%, citing record backlog, expanding capacity, and improving production execution, particularly at BASX, as key supports for the stock's recent move. See our latest analysis for AAON. The latest guidance upgrade lands on top of strong momentum in AAON stock, with a 90 day share price return of 66.6% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 86.58%. However, the 30 day share price move has been roughly flat, which may hint that...Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Jul 04
AAON's Plunge Was Well Deserved
Summary AAON, Inc. remains rated a soft 'sell' due to valuation concerns despite strong operational performance driven by data center investments. The recent share price decline of 22% since May reflects overvaluation, even as revenue and backlog growth remain robust, especially in the BASX and Coil Products segments. Profit margins are under pressure, particularly in the AAON Oklahoma segment, raising concerns about the sustainability of current profitability as sales expand. Even under aggressive growth scenarios, AAON trades at lofty multiples; a further 10% price decline may justify a 'hold' rating if data center momentum persists. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jun 30
AAON: Data Center Cooling Backlog Will Support Margins Despite Profitability Concerns
Analysts have raised their price target on AAON to $143.50 from $122.75, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E that were reflected in recent Street research. What's in the News AAON raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 40% to 45%, citing record backlog levels, expanded production capacity, and improved execution, with management highlighting visibility from a total backlog of US$2.13b, sourced from recent Street research on BASX driven data center cooling demand.Analysis Article • Jun 17
AAON (AAON) Stock Could Be 8.6% Overvalued After 2026 Growth Outlook Lift
AAON (AAON) raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 40% to 45%, citing record backlog, expanding capacity, and improving production execution, particularly at BASX, as key supports for the stock's recent move. See our latest analysis for AAON. The latest guidance upgrade lands on top of strong momentum in AAON stock, with a 90 day share price return of 66.6% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 86.58%. However, the 30 day share price move has been roughly flat, which may hint that...
Narrative Update • Jun 16
AAON: Record Backlog And Insider Selling Will Shape Stock Outlook
Analysts have raised their AAON price target by $25, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, which they believe better reflect the stock's current risk and earnings profile. What’s in the News for AAON AAON reports a record US$2.13b backlog tied largely to multi year data center projects, with management commentary highlighting expectations for 40% to 45% revenue growth and gross margins of about 27% to 28% for 2026, supported by capacity expansion and lean manufacturing initiatives.Narrative Update • Jun 02
AAON: Raised Guidance And New CFO Will Not Justify Current Optimism
Analysts nudged their price target on AAON higher to $120, citing recent research updates that refine expectations for growth, margins, and future P/E, while keeping their fair value view steady. What's in the News AAON shareholders approved an amendment to the Articles of Incorporation to increase the maximum Board size from nine to eleven directors at the May 12, 2026 annual meeting.Analysis Article • May 19
We Think That There Are More Issues For AAON (NASDAQ:AAON) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
AAON, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:AAON ) stock showed strength, with investors undeterred by its weak earnings report. Sometimes...
Narrative Update • May 16
AAON: Raised FY26 Guidance And Backlog Support Higher Long Term Earnings Power
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for AAON stock from $125.00 to $154.00, pointing to updated assumptions around revenue growth, profitability, and future P/E that are consistent with recent price target increases highlighted in Street research. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts have echoed the higher fair value estimate with upward revisions to their own price targets, citing updated expectations around revenue, margins, and future P/E assumptions that align more closely with recent company guidance.Analysis Article • May 12
Analysts Just Shipped A Sizeable Upgrade To Their AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) Estimates
AAON, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAON ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial...Narrative Update • Apr 29
AAON: FY26 Guidance Will Support Long Term Upside Potential
Analysts nudged their price target on AAON shares up by $3 to $118, citing company guidance that is above Street expectations for FY26 revenue and gross profit as support for the move. Analyst Commentary Street research points to a mixed reaction around AAON, with the latest price target adjustment to US$118 reflecting confidence in the company’s FY26 guidance but also highlighting areas where expectations may be running ahead of what some see as a clean execution path.Narrative Update • Apr 14
AAON: FY26 Guidance And Data Center Demand Will Support Long Term Upside
Analysts have nudged their AAON price target up by $3 to $118, citing company guidance for FY26 revenue and gross profit that is 10% and 16% above Street estimates, respectively, as the key driver of their revised view. Analyst Commentary Even with the higher price target to $118, some bearish analysts are using the latest guidance as a moment to stress-test expectations around AAON's execution and growth profile.Narrative Update • Mar 31
AAON: Data Center Cooling Demand Will Support Long Term Rubin Era Upside
The updated analyst work on AAON lifts the fair value estimate from $100.00 to $120.00, reflecting a higher Street price target of $118 and analyst views that long term revenue, gross profit guidance and data center cooling demand continue to support the company despite recent share volatility. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a mix of optimism and caution around AAON, with the updated fair value estimate aligning closely with the higher Street price target of US$118.Narrative Update • Mar 17
AAON: Data Center Cooling Strength Will Support Margins Despite Rubin Chip Concerns
The analyst fair value estimate for AAON has been raised by $2.50 to $122.75, as analysts point to updated price targets and expectations for revenue and gross profit that are above prior Street views, while still viewing data center cooling demand as intact despite recent concerns. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on AAON highlights a mix of optimism around long term growth drivers and some near term questions on execution, especially following recent quarterly results and market reactions.Narrative Update • Mar 03
AAON: Data Center Cooling Demand Will Support Margins Despite Rubin Chip Concerns
Analysts have nudged their AAON price target up by $5.00 to $120.25, reflecting updated assumptions on growth, margins, and P/E, along with their view that data center cooling demand remains solid despite recent concerns around new chip architectures. Analyst Commentary Analysts are parsing the recent move in AAON shares and the updated price target in the context of data center cooling.Narrative Update • Feb 17
AAON: Data Center Cooling Needs Will Shape Rubin Era Outlook
Analysts have nudged their AAON price target slightly higher to $100.00 as they see data center cooling demand holding up despite concerns around Nvidia's Rubin chips. AAON's existing offerings in free-cooling chillers, CDUs, dry coolers, and airside cooling are expected to remain relevant to customers.Narrative Update • Feb 02
AAON: Data Center Cooling Demand And Rubin Concerns Will Shape Outlook
Analysts have nudged their AAON price target slightly higher to US$100.00, citing steady expectations for data center cooling demand even after recent concerns about Nvidia's Rubin chips. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary highlights that the 8% share price move following concerns about Nvidia's Rubin chips reflects more anxiety about AAON's long term growth path than clear evidence of lost demand.Narrative Update • Jan 19
AAON: Data Center Cooling Demand And Short Seller Claims Will Shape Outlook
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for AAON from $90.00 to $100.00, citing ongoing data center cooling demand across chillers, CDUs, dry coolers, and airside solutions, which they believe is not materially affected by concerns around Rubin chips. Analyst Commentary The recent pullback in AAON shares reflects investor worries that future chip architectures could reduce the need for traditional chiller based cooling, especially in high density data centers.Analysis Article • Jan 17
AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) Stocks Shoot Up 26% But Its P/E Still Looks Reasonable
AAON, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAON ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last...Narrative Update • Jan 05
AAON: AI Infrastructure Demand Will Support Margins Despite Short Seller Concerns
Narrative Update on AAON Analysts nudged their AAON price target higher to $112 from $105, pointing to the company's exposure to artificial intelligence related infrastructure demand as a key support for the revised view. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the new US$112 price target within a broader view that AAON is positioned in areas of the market tied to artificial intelligence related infrastructure, rather than more cyclical residential and construction activity.Analysis Article • Dec 15
AAON (NASDAQ:AAON) Will Want To Turn Around Its Return Trends
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly...Narrative Update • Dec 14
AAON: Data Center Expansion Will Drive Long Term Margin Strength Despite Short Seller Pressure
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on AAON to $112 from $105, reflecting growing confidence in the company’s differentiated HVAC and data center positioning, as well as the operating leverage expected from its expanding data center footprint and longer term growth initiatives. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight that the recent target increase mainly reflects rising conviction in AAON’s structural growth drivers, particularly its exposure to data center thermal management and differentiated HVAC solutions.Narrative Update • Nov 27
AAON: Expanding Data Center Demand Will Lift Results Despite Margin Debate
Analysts have raised their price target for AAON to $112 from $105. They cite expectations for strong performance in data center-related markets and improving fundamentals in the industrial efficiency sector.Analysis Article • Nov 13
Why AAON's (NASDAQ:AAON) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems
AAON, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:AAON ) stock showed strength, with investors undeterred by its weak earnings report. Sometimes...Narrative Update • Nov 12
AAON: Data Center Expansion Will Drive Results Amid Margin Uncertainty
Analysts have raised their fair value price target for AAON from $103.25 to $115.25 per share. They cite expectations of stronger revenue growth, a slightly higher discount rate, and continued benefits from the company's positioning in data center and industrial efficiency sectors.Analysis Article • Nov 09
AAON, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 19%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
AAON, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAON ) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of market...Narrative Update • Oct 29
Data Center Demand And Industrial Efficiency Will Shape Performance Through 2027
Analysts have raised their price target for AAON from $105 to $112, citing improving fundamentals and the company's strong positioning in industrial efficiency and data center growth. Analyst Commentary Analyst perspectives on AAON reflect both optimism regarding the company's growth prospects and caution about sector headwinds.Narrative Update • Oct 15
Advanced Data Center Cooling And Automation Will Drive Long-Term Efficiency
Analysts have raised AAON's fair value estimate from $98.75 to $103.25, citing improved outlooks for industrial efficiency and data center exposure as key drivers behind the price target increase. Analyst Commentary Analyst sentiment on AAON remains largely positive following recent earnings and coverage updates.Analysis Article • Oct 07
AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) Looks Just Right With A 28% Price Jump
AAON, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAON ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month alone. But the...Narrative Update • Sep 23
Advanced Data Center Cooling And Automation Will Drive Long-Term Efficiency
The rise in AAON’s consensus price target reflects a higher future P/E multiple, indicating increased optimism for growth, with fair value now at $98.75. What's in the News AAON provided Q3 2025 guidance with expected YoY sales growth in the low single digits and Q4 2025 guidance with YoY sales growth in the high twenties.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Advanced Data Center Cooling And Automation Will Drive Long-Term Efficiency
Analysts have trimmed AAON’s price target in response to weaker-than-expected long-term revenue and margin guidance and ongoing rooftop HVAC market softness, though some see the market’s reaction as overdone, resulting in the consensus fair value holding steady at $95.75. Analyst Commentary Q2 results suggest the worst of recent headwinds may be over, prompting analysts to update forecasts despite trimming price targets.Analysis Article • Aug 14
Earnings Miss: AAON, Inc. Missed EPS By 43% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
NasdaqGS:AAON 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore AAON's Fair Values from the Community and select yours The...Shareholder Returns
| AAON | US Building | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 6.1% | -2.8% | 0.6% |
| 1Y | 48.6% | 2.7% | 19.5% |
Return vs Industry: AAON exceeded the US Building industry which returned 2.7% over the past year.
Return vs Market: AAON exceeded the US Market which returned 19.5% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| AAON volatility | |
|---|---|
| AAON Average Weekly Movement | 12.1% |
| Building Industry Average Movement | 6.3% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.3% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.7% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: AAON's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: AAON's weekly volatility (12%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | 5,897 | Matt Tobolski | www.aaon.com |
AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX. It offers rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air handling units, makeup air units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls.
AAON, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| AAON fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$9.03b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$118.12m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$1.62b |
79.2x
P/E Ratio5.8x
P/S RatioIs AAON overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| AAON income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$1.62b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$1.19b |
| Gross Profit | US$424.33m |
| Other Expenses | US$306.21m |
| Earnings | US$118.12m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 1.44 |
| Gross Margin | 26.24% |
| Net Profit Margin | 7.30% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 45.5% |
How did AAON perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
0.4%
Current Dividend Yield28%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/10 21:41 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/10 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
AAON, Inc. is covered by 7 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Timothy Wojs | Baird |
| Christopher Moore | CJS Securities, Inc. |
| Brent Thielman | D.A. Davidson & Co. |