Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Analysts have trimmed AAON’s price target in response to weaker-than-expected long-term revenue and margin guidance and ongoing rooftop HVAC market softness, though some see the market’s reaction as overdone, resulting in the consensus fair value holding steady at $95.75.
Analyst Commentary
- Q2 results suggest the worst of recent headwinds may be over, prompting analysts to update forecasts despite trimming price targets.
- Bearish analysts cite the company's three-year revenue and gross margin targets as coming in below expectations, leading to share price weakness.
- Weakness in the rooftop HVAC market for 2025 is impacting near-term revenue projections.
- Management is viewed as conservative in its forward outlook, building in caution due to anticipated slow rooftop demand and the time required to ramp up the Memphis facility.
- Bullish analysts consider the market's reaction to long-term targets as an overreaction, highlighting ongoing goals for high single-digit growth over the long term.
What's in the News
- AAON provided Q3 guidance for low single-digit YoY sales growth and Q4 guidance for high twenties YoY sales growth.
- The company lowered its 2025 full-year guidance, now expecting low teens YoY sales growth due to ongoing but improving inefficiencies at Longview and moderated production in Tulsa.
- Repurchased 8,886 shares for $0.86 million in the latest tranche, totaling 11,093,079 shares (14.59%) repurchased for $832.52 million under its ongoing buyback.
- Removed from the Russell 1000 Growth-Defensive Index.
- Removed from the Russell 1000 Defensive Index.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for AAON
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $95.75.
- The Discount Rate for AAON remained effectively unchanged, at 8.13%.
- The Net Profit Margin for AAON remained effectively unchanged, at 14.68%.
Disclaimer
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