AAON Future Growth
Future criteria checks 5/6
AAON is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 28.9% and 13.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 28.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 24.1% in 3 years.
Key information
28.9%
Earnings growth rate
28.10%
EPS growth rate
| Building earnings growth | 18.0% |
| Revenue growth rate | 13.4% |
| Future return on equity | 24.10% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 27 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
AAON, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 19%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Nov 09
Earnings Miss: AAON, Inc. Missed EPS By 43% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Aug 14Recent updates
AAON: FY26 Guidance Will Support Long Term Upside Potential
Analysts nudged their price target on AAON shares up by $3 to $118, citing company guidance that is above Street expectations for FY26 revenue and gross profit as support for the move. Analyst Commentary Street research points to a mixed reaction around AAON, with the latest price target adjustment to US$118 reflecting confidence in the company’s FY26 guidance but also highlighting areas where expectations may be running ahead of what some see as a clean execution path.AAON: FY26 Guidance And Data Center Demand Will Support Long Term Upside
Analysts have nudged their AAON price target up by $3 to $118, citing company guidance for FY26 revenue and gross profit that is 10% and 16% above Street estimates, respectively, as the key driver of their revised view. Analyst Commentary Even with the higher price target to $118, some bearish analysts are using the latest guidance as a moment to stress-test expectations around AAON's execution and growth profile.AAON: Data Center Cooling Demand Will Support Long Term Rubin Era Upside
The updated analyst work on AAON lifts the fair value estimate from $100.00 to $120.00, reflecting a higher Street price target of $118 and analyst views that long term revenue, gross profit guidance and data center cooling demand continue to support the company despite recent share volatility. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a mix of optimism and caution around AAON, with the updated fair value estimate aligning closely with the higher Street price target of US$118.
AAON: Data Center Cooling Strength Will Support Margins Despite Rubin Chip Concerns
The analyst fair value estimate for AAON has been raised by $2.50 to $122.75, as analysts point to updated price targets and expectations for revenue and gross profit that are above prior Street views, while still viewing data center cooling demand as intact despite recent concerns. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on AAON highlights a mix of optimism around long term growth drivers and some near term questions on execution, especially following recent quarterly results and market reactions.AAON: Data Center Cooling Demand Will Support Margins Despite Rubin Chip Concerns
Analysts have nudged their AAON price target up by $5.00 to $120.25, reflecting updated assumptions on growth, margins, and P/E, along with their view that data center cooling demand remains solid despite recent concerns around new chip architectures. Analyst Commentary Analysts are parsing the recent move in AAON shares and the updated price target in the context of data center cooling.AAON: Data Center Cooling Needs Will Shape Rubin Era Outlook
Analysts have nudged their AAON price target slightly higher to $100.00 as they see data center cooling demand holding up despite concerns around Nvidia's Rubin chips. AAON's existing offerings in free-cooling chillers, CDUs, dry coolers, and airside cooling are expected to remain relevant to customers.AAON: Data Center Cooling Demand And Rubin Concerns Will Shape Outlook
Analysts have nudged their AAON price target slightly higher to US$100.00, citing steady expectations for data center cooling demand even after recent concerns about Nvidia's Rubin chips. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary highlights that the 8% share price move following concerns about Nvidia's Rubin chips reflects more anxiety about AAON's long term growth path than clear evidence of lost demand.AAON: Shares Need To Cool Down
Jan 30AAON: Data Center Cooling Demand And Short Seller Claims Will Shape Outlook
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for AAON from $90.00 to $100.00, citing ongoing data center cooling demand across chillers, CDUs, dry coolers, and airside solutions, which they believe is not materially affected by concerns around Rubin chips. Analyst Commentary The recent pullback in AAON shares reflects investor worries that future chip architectures could reduce the need for traditional chiller based cooling, especially in high density data centers.AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) Stocks Shoot Up 26% But Its P/E Still Looks Reasonable
Jan 17AAON: AI Infrastructure Demand Will Support Margins Despite Short Seller Concerns
Narrative Update on AAON Analysts nudged their AAON price target higher to $112 from $105, pointing to the company's exposure to artificial intelligence related infrastructure demand as a key support for the revised view. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the new US$112 price target within a broader view that AAON is positioned in areas of the market tied to artificial intelligence related infrastructure, rather than more cyclical residential and construction activity.AAON (NASDAQ:AAON) Will Want To Turn Around Its Return Trends
Dec 15AAON: Data Center Expansion Will Drive Long Term Margin Strength Despite Short Seller Pressure
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on AAON to $112 from $105, reflecting growing confidence in the company’s differentiated HVAC and data center positioning, as well as the operating leverage expected from its expanding data center footprint and longer term growth initiatives. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight that the recent target increase mainly reflects rising conviction in AAON’s structural growth drivers, particularly its exposure to data center thermal management and differentiated HVAC solutions.AAON: Expanding Data Center Demand Will Lift Results Despite Margin Debate
Analysts have raised their price target for AAON to $112 from $105. They cite expectations for strong performance in data center-related markets and improving fundamentals in the industrial efficiency sector.Why AAON's (NASDAQ:AAON) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems
Nov 13AAON: Data Center Expansion Will Drive Results Amid Margin Uncertainty
Analysts have raised their fair value price target for AAON from $103.25 to $115.25 per share. They cite expectations of stronger revenue growth, a slightly higher discount rate, and continued benefits from the company's positioning in data center and industrial efficiency sectors.AAON, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 19%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Nov 09Data Center Demand And Industrial Efficiency Will Shape Performance Through 2027
Analysts have raised their price target for AAON from $105 to $112, citing improving fundamentals and the company's strong positioning in industrial efficiency and data center growth. Analyst Commentary Analyst perspectives on AAON reflect both optimism regarding the company's growth prospects and caution about sector headwinds.Advanced Data Center Cooling And Automation Will Drive Long-Term Efficiency
Analysts have raised AAON's fair value estimate from $98.75 to $103.25, citing improved outlooks for industrial efficiency and data center exposure as key drivers behind the price target increase. Analyst Commentary Analyst sentiment on AAON remains largely positive following recent earnings and coverage updates.AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) Looks Just Right With A 28% Price Jump
Oct 07Advanced Data Center Cooling And Automation Will Drive Long-Term Efficiency
The rise in AAON’s consensus price target reflects a higher future P/E multiple, indicating increased optimism for growth, with fair value now at $98.75. What's in the News AAON provided Q3 2025 guidance with expected YoY sales growth in the low single digits and Q4 2025 guidance with YoY sales growth in the high twenties.Advanced Data Center Cooling And Automation Will Drive Long-Term Efficiency
Analysts have trimmed AAON’s price target in response to weaker-than-expected long-term revenue and margin guidance and ongoing rooftop HVAC market softness, though some see the market’s reaction as overdone, resulting in the consensus fair value holding steady at $95.75. Analyst Commentary Q2 results suggest the worst of recent headwinds may be over, prompting analysts to update forecasts despite trimming price targets.Earnings Miss: AAON, Inc. Missed EPS By 43% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Aug 14Be Wary Of AAON (NASDAQ:AAON) And Its Returns On Capital
Jul 10Are AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?
Jun 17AAON, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAON) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 26% Share Price Bounce
May 14AAON: Don't Get Sucked In After A 22% Dip
Feb 28Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 2,236 | 319 | 257 | 397 | 2 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1,948 | 246 | 230 | 355 | 5 |
| 12/31/2026 | 1,721 | 165 | 83 | 266 | 5 |
| 12/31/2025 | 1,442 | 108 | -204 | 1 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 1,316 | 100 | -256 | -18 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 1,259 | 122 | -194 | 34 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 1,261 | 159 | -134 | 91 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 1,201 | 169 | -21 | 193 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 1,210 | 191 | 103 | 243 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 1,194 | 186 | 103 | 227 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 1,165 | 180 | 127 | 246 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 1,169 | 178 | 49 | 159 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 1,116 | 169 | 52 | 125 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 1,047 | 149 | 57 | 123 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 972 | 119 | 4 | 73 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 889 | 100 | -15 | 61 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 770 | 68 | -46 | 30 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 666 | 56 | -75 | -3 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 602 | 60 | -27 | 26 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 535 | 59 | 6 | 61 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 515 | 71 | 45 | 107 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 511 | 76 | 62 | 129 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 493 | 74 | 58 | 120 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 515 | 79 | 61 | 129 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 520 | 77 | 69 | 124 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 499 | 71 | 71 | 125 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 493 | 67 | 70 | 121 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 469 | 54 | 61 | 98 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 459 | 49 | N/A | 81 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 459 | 49 | N/A | 54 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 449 | 47 | N/A | 59 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 434 | 42 | N/A | 55 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 426 | 46 | N/A | 60 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 426 | 46 | N/A | 60 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 418 | 49 | N/A | 59 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 405 | 54 | N/A | 58 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 393 | 50 | N/A | 59 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 384 | 51 | N/A | 68 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 385 | 52 | N/A | 58 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 384 | 53 | N/A | 64 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 390 | 55 | N/A | 64 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 379 | 52 | N/A | 73 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 367 | 49 | N/A | 67 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 359 | 46 | N/A | 55 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 346 | 43 | N/A | 52 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 355 | 43 | N/A | 47 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: AAON's forecast earnings growth (28.9% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).
Earnings vs Market: AAON's earnings (28.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (15.8% per year).
High Growth Earnings: AAON's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: AAON's revenue (13.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11% per year).
High Growth Revenue: AAON's revenue (13.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: AAON's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (24.1%)
Discover growth companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/01 21:59 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/01 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
AAON, Inc. is covered by 7 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Timothy Wojs | Baird |
| Christopher Moore | CJS Securities, Inc. |
| Brent Thielman | D.A. Davidson & Co. |