AAON Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 1/6
AAON has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 15%, while the Building industry saw earnings growing at 11.7% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 21.3% per year. AAON's return on equity is 12.6%, and it has net margins of 7.3%.
Key information
15.01%
Earnings growth rate
14.28%
EPS growth rate
| Building Industry Growth | 13.32% |
| Revenue growth rate | 21.29% |
| Return on equity | 12.64% |
| Net Margin | 7.30% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Analysis Article • 15h
Analysts Just Shipped A Sizeable Upgrade To Their AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) Estimates
AAON, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAON ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial...
Narrative Update • Apr 29
AAON: FY26 Guidance Will Support Long Term Upside Potential
Analysts nudged their price target on AAON shares up by $3 to $118, citing company guidance that is above Street expectations for FY26 revenue and gross profit as support for the move. Analyst Commentary Street research points to a mixed reaction around AAON, with the latest price target adjustment to US$118 reflecting confidence in the company’s FY26 guidance but also highlighting areas where expectations may be running ahead of what some see as a clean execution path.Narrative Update • Apr 14
AAON: FY26 Guidance And Data Center Demand Will Support Long Term Upside
Analysts have nudged their AAON price target up by $3 to $118, citing company guidance for FY26 revenue and gross profit that is 10% and 16% above Street estimates, respectively, as the key driver of their revised view. Analyst Commentary Even with the higher price target to $118, some bearish analysts are using the latest guidance as a moment to stress-test expectations around AAON's execution and growth profile.Narrative Update • Mar 31
AAON: Data Center Cooling Demand Will Support Long Term Rubin Era Upside
The updated analyst work on AAON lifts the fair value estimate from $100.00 to $120.00, reflecting a higher Street price target of $118 and analyst views that long term revenue, gross profit guidance and data center cooling demand continue to support the company despite recent share volatility. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a mix of optimism and caution around AAON, with the updated fair value estimate aligning closely with the higher Street price target of US$118.
Narrative Update • Mar 17
AAON: Data Center Cooling Strength Will Support Margins Despite Rubin Chip Concerns
The analyst fair value estimate for AAON has been raised by $2.50 to $122.75, as analysts point to updated price targets and expectations for revenue and gross profit that are above prior Street views, while still viewing data center cooling demand as intact despite recent concerns. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on AAON highlights a mix of optimism around long term growth drivers and some near term questions on execution, especially following recent quarterly results and market reactions.Narrative Update • Mar 03
AAON: Data Center Cooling Demand Will Support Margins Despite Rubin Chip Concerns
Analysts have nudged their AAON price target up by $5.00 to $120.25, reflecting updated assumptions on growth, margins, and P/E, along with their view that data center cooling demand remains solid despite recent concerns around new chip architectures. Analyst Commentary Analysts are parsing the recent move in AAON shares and the updated price target in the context of data center cooling.Narrative Update • Feb 17
AAON: Data Center Cooling Needs Will Shape Rubin Era Outlook
Analysts have nudged their AAON price target slightly higher to $100.00 as they see data center cooling demand holding up despite concerns around Nvidia's Rubin chips. AAON's existing offerings in free-cooling chillers, CDUs, dry coolers, and airside cooling are expected to remain relevant to customers.Narrative Update • Feb 02
AAON: Data Center Cooling Demand And Rubin Concerns Will Shape Outlook
Analysts have nudged their AAON price target slightly higher to US$100.00, citing steady expectations for data center cooling demand even after recent concerns about Nvidia's Rubin chips. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary highlights that the 8% share price move following concerns about Nvidia's Rubin chips reflects more anxiety about AAON's long term growth path than clear evidence of lost demand.Seeking Alpha • Jan 30
AAON: Shares Need To Cool Down
Summary AAON operates in the HVAC market, with a significant growth engine in data center cooling via its BASX segment. Revenue, profits, and cash flow have grown robustly, but recent profitability was pressured by supply chain and ERP-related disruptions in the Oklahoma segment. Backlog surged to $1.32 billion, driven by BASX’s exposure to the expanding data center market, supporting management’s 12.5% annualized sales growth target. Despite strong growth prospects, AAON trades at lofty multiples versus peers; I assign a speculative "Hold" due to valuation concerns. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jan 19
AAON: Data Center Cooling Demand And Short Seller Claims Will Shape Outlook
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for AAON from $90.00 to $100.00, citing ongoing data center cooling demand across chillers, CDUs, dry coolers, and airside solutions, which they believe is not materially affected by concerns around Rubin chips. Analyst Commentary The recent pullback in AAON shares reflects investor worries that future chip architectures could reduce the need for traditional chiller based cooling, especially in high density data centers.Analysis Article • Jan 17
AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) Stocks Shoot Up 26% But Its P/E Still Looks Reasonable
AAON, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAON ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last...Narrative Update • Jan 05
AAON: AI Infrastructure Demand Will Support Margins Despite Short Seller Concerns
Narrative Update on AAON Analysts nudged their AAON price target higher to $112 from $105, pointing to the company's exposure to artificial intelligence related infrastructure demand as a key support for the revised view. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the new US$112 price target within a broader view that AAON is positioned in areas of the market tied to artificial intelligence related infrastructure, rather than more cyclical residential and construction activity.Analysis Article • Dec 15
AAON (NASDAQ:AAON) Will Want To Turn Around Its Return Trends
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly...Narrative Update • Dec 14
AAON: Data Center Expansion Will Drive Long Term Margin Strength Despite Short Seller Pressure
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on AAON to $112 from $105, reflecting growing confidence in the company’s differentiated HVAC and data center positioning, as well as the operating leverage expected from its expanding data center footprint and longer term growth initiatives. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight that the recent target increase mainly reflects rising conviction in AAON’s structural growth drivers, particularly its exposure to data center thermal management and differentiated HVAC solutions.Narrative Update • Nov 27
AAON: Expanding Data Center Demand Will Lift Results Despite Margin Debate
Analysts have raised their price target for AAON to $112 from $105. They cite expectations for strong performance in data center-related markets and improving fundamentals in the industrial efficiency sector.Analysis Article • Nov 13
Why AAON's (NASDAQ:AAON) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems
AAON, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:AAON ) stock showed strength, with investors undeterred by its weak earnings report. Sometimes...Narrative Update • Nov 12
AAON: Data Center Expansion Will Drive Results Amid Margin Uncertainty
Analysts have raised their fair value price target for AAON from $103.25 to $115.25 per share. They cite expectations of stronger revenue growth, a slightly higher discount rate, and continued benefits from the company's positioning in data center and industrial efficiency sectors.Analysis Article • Nov 09
AAON, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 19%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
AAON, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAON ) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of market...Narrative Update • Oct 29
Data Center Demand And Industrial Efficiency Will Shape Performance Through 2027
Analysts have raised their price target for AAON from $105 to $112, citing improving fundamentals and the company's strong positioning in industrial efficiency and data center growth. Analyst Commentary Analyst perspectives on AAON reflect both optimism regarding the company's growth prospects and caution about sector headwinds.Narrative Update • Oct 15
Advanced Data Center Cooling And Automation Will Drive Long-Term Efficiency
Analysts have raised AAON's fair value estimate from $98.75 to $103.25, citing improved outlooks for industrial efficiency and data center exposure as key drivers behind the price target increase. Analyst Commentary Analyst sentiment on AAON remains largely positive following recent earnings and coverage updates.Analysis Article • Oct 07
AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) Looks Just Right With A 28% Price Jump
AAON, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAON ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month alone. But the...Narrative Update • Sep 23
Advanced Data Center Cooling And Automation Will Drive Long-Term Efficiency
The rise in AAON’s consensus price target reflects a higher future P/E multiple, indicating increased optimism for growth, with fair value now at $98.75. What's in the News AAON provided Q3 2025 guidance with expected YoY sales growth in the low single digits and Q4 2025 guidance with YoY sales growth in the high twenties.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Advanced Data Center Cooling And Automation Will Drive Long-Term Efficiency
Analysts have trimmed AAON’s price target in response to weaker-than-expected long-term revenue and margin guidance and ongoing rooftop HVAC market softness, though some see the market’s reaction as overdone, resulting in the consensus fair value holding steady at $95.75. Analyst Commentary Q2 results suggest the worst of recent headwinds may be over, prompting analysts to update forecasts despite trimming price targets.Analysis Article • Aug 14
Earnings Miss: AAON, Inc. Missed EPS By 43% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
NasdaqGS:AAON 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore AAON's Fair Values from the Community and select yours The...Analysis Article • Jul 10
Be Wary Of AAON (NASDAQ:AAON) And Its Returns On Capital
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...Analysis Article • Jun 17
Are AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, AAON fair value estimate is US$61.11 AAON is estimated to be...Analysis Article • May 14
AAON, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAON) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 26% Share Price Bounce
AAON, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAON ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How AAON makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 1,617 | 118 | 227 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 1,442 | 108 | 210 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 1,316 | 100 | 193 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 1,259 | 122 | 179 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 1,261 | 159 | 169 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 1,201 | 169 | 166 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 1,210 | 191 | 161 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 1,194 | 186 | 165 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 1,165 | 180 | 160 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 1,169 | 178 | 164 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 1,116 | 169 | 142 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 1,047 | 149 | 122 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 972 | 119 | 111 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 889 | 100 | 111 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 770 | 68 | 88 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 666 | 56 | 76 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 602 | 60 | 68 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 535 | 59 | 69 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 515 | 71 | 59 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 511 | 76 | 58 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 493 | 74 | 56 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 515 | 79 | 60 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 520 | 77 | 55 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 499 | 71 | 53 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 493 | 67 | 51 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 469 | 54 | 49 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 459 | 49 | 48 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 459 | 49 | 49 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 449 | 47 | 50 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 434 | 42 | 46 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 426 | 46 | 48 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 426 | 46 | 48 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 418 | 49 | 47 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 405 | 54 | 48 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 393 | 50 | 43 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 384 | 51 | 40 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 385 | 52 | 39 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 384 | 53 | 37 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 390 | 55 | 39 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 379 | 52 | 38 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 367 | 49 | 37 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 359 | 46 | 36 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 346 | 43 | 35 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 355 | 43 | 36 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: AAON has a high level of non-cash earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: AAON's current net profit margins (7.3%) are lower than last year (12.6%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: AAON's earnings have grown by 15% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: AAON's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: AAON had negative earnings growth (-25.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Building industry average (-4.7%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: AAON's Return on Equity (12.6%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/12 21:22 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/12 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
AAON, Inc. is covered by 7 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Timothy Wojs | Baird |
| Christopher Moore | CJS Securities, Inc. |
| Brent Thielman | D.A. Davidson & Co. |