AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) Looks Just Right With A 28% Price Jump

AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month alone. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 3.7% in the last twelve months.

Since its price has surged higher, given close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 19x, you may consider AAON as a stock to avoid entirely with its 69.3x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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AAON could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for AAON

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on AAON.

Is There Enough Growth For AAON?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as AAON's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 35%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 112% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 31% per annum as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 11% each year growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we can see why AAON is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.

The Final Word

Shares in AAON have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

As we suspected, our examination of AAON's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 2 warning signs for AAON (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you're unsure about the strength of AAON's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.