Key Investment Theses:
Transition from Investment Cycle to Dividend Cycle: 2025 marks a turning point in free cash flow (FCF) with the completion of the Antalya and Ankara investments. In 2026 and beyond, with the decreasing CapEx requirement and the commissioning of new capacities, the company's debt ratio (Net Debt/EBITDA) is projected to rapidly decline below 3.0x and achieve strong dividend-paying capacity.
Almaty's Strategic Transformation: Almaty Airport, which joined the portfolio in 2021, is a key growth engine, protecting TAV from the cyclical nature of the Turkish tourism season and creating a strategic cargo and passenger hub on the "Modern Silk Road." The new terminal opening in 2024 and additional planned airside investments will drive up the asset's multipliers.
A "Natural Hedging" Mechanism in an Inflationary Environment: 63% of TAVHL's revenues are denominated in Euros and 13% in Dollars. A significant portion of expenses consists of personnel and operating expenses denominated in Turkish Lira. High inflation in Türkiye and the accompanying exchange rate fluctuations increase the company's revenues in Turkish Lira while providing a natural financial hedge, allowing it to maintain or increase its margins. This positively differentiates the company from other industrial companies on the Borsa Istanbul, particularly in scenarios where the Turkish Lira does not appreciate in real terms (depreciates at the same rate as inflation).
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