Stellar Bancorp, Inc.

NYSE:STEL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.5b

Stellar Bancorp Valuation

Is STEL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of STEL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: STEL ($28.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($38.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: STEL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for STEL?

Key metric: As STEL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for STEL. This is calculated by dividing STEL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is STEL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.2x
EarningsUS$117.06m
Market CapUS$1.54b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does STEL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for STEL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.4x
NIC Nicolet Bankshares
13.5x2.6%US$1.6b
NBHC National Bank Holdings
13.4x7.4%US$1.7b
WABC Westamerica Bancorporation
9.7x-15.9%US$1.4b
PEBO Peoples Bancorp
9.2x-1.5%US$1.1b
STEL Stellar Bancorp
13.2x-4.8%US$1.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: STEL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the peer average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does STEL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FRCB First Republic Bank
0.02xn/aUS$27.98m
BKGM BankGuam Holding
1xn/aUS$18.48m
SBNY Signature Bank
0.002xn/aUS$2.18m
BCBH.F Caribbean Investment Holdings
0.00001xn/aUS$132.00
No more companies available in this PE range
STEL 13.2xIndustry Avg. 12.5xNo. of Companies80PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: STEL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the US Banks industry average (12.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is STEL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

STEL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.2x
Fair PE Ratio11x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: STEL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst STEL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$28.85
US$30.80
+6.8%
7.5%US$34.00US$28.00n/a5
Dec ’25US$31.01
US$28.80
-7.1%
4.0%US$30.00US$27.00n/a5
Nov ’25US$26.67
US$28.80
+8.0%
4.0%US$30.00US$27.00n/a5
Oct ’25US$24.89
US$28.60
+14.9%
5.7%US$31.00US$27.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$27.27
US$28.60
+4.9%
5.7%US$31.00US$27.00n/a5
Aug ’25US$26.43
US$28.60
+8.2%
5.7%US$31.00US$27.00n/a5
Jul ’25US$22.52
US$25.50
+13.2%
3.5%US$27.00US$24.50n/a5
Jun ’25US$22.59
US$25.50
+12.9%
3.5%US$27.00US$24.50n/a5
May ’25US$22.80
US$27.50
+20.6%
9.5%US$31.00US$24.50n/a5
Apr ’25US$23.89
US$29.70
+24.3%
4.5%US$31.00US$27.50n/a5
Mar ’25US$23.80
US$29.70
+24.8%
4.5%US$31.00US$27.50n/a5
Feb ’25US$24.90
US$29.70
+19.3%
4.5%US$31.00US$27.50n/a5
Jan ’25US$27.84
US$27.00
-3.0%
9.7%US$31.00US$24.00n/a5
Dec ’24US$24.94
US$25.60
+2.6%
5.3%US$27.00US$24.00US$31.015
Nov ’24US$21.79
US$25.60
+17.5%
5.3%US$27.00US$24.00US$26.675
Oct ’24US$21.32
US$28.00
+31.3%
6.0%US$31.00US$26.00US$24.895
Sep ’24US$21.77
US$28.20
+29.5%
6.1%US$31.00US$26.00US$27.275
Aug ’24US$24.34
US$28.20
+15.9%
6.1%US$31.00US$26.00US$26.435
Jul ’24US$22.89
US$27.80
+21.5%
7.7%US$31.00US$25.00US$22.525
Jun ’24US$23.76
US$27.40
+15.3%
7.5%US$31.00US$25.00US$22.595
May ’24US$22.27
US$27.40
+23.0%
7.5%US$31.00US$25.00US$22.805
Apr ’24US$24.61
US$33.10
+34.5%
9.5%US$38.00US$29.00US$23.895
Mar ’24US$29.11
US$33.40
+14.7%
9.4%US$38.00US$29.00US$23.805
Feb ’24US$28.10
US$33.40
+18.9%
9.4%US$38.00US$29.00US$24.905
Jan ’24US$29.46
US$36.20
+22.9%
5.6%US$40.00US$34.00US$27.845
Dec ’23US$33.62
US$35.60
+5.9%
2.9%US$37.00US$34.00US$24.945

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/26 10:18
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/26 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Stellar Bancorp, Inc. is covered by 9 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Bryce RoweBaird
John RodisJanney Montgomery Scott LLC
Catherine Summerson MealorKeefe, Bruyette, & Woods