New York Community Bancorp (NYSE:NYCB) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of NYCB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

NYCB ($10.31) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($14.54)

NYCB fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

NYCB Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 29.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 28.55% per year

Earnings grew by 4.1% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

New York Community Bancorp Competitors

Essent Group

NYSE:ESNT

US$4.6b

MGIC Investment

NYSE:MTG

US$4.4b

Enact Holdings

NasdaqGS:ACT

US$4.2b

Federal National Mortgage Association

OTCPK:FNMA

US$3.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for New York Community Bancorp
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$10.31
52 Week High	US$14.33
52 Week Low	US$8.50
Beta	0.99
1 Month Change	11.22%
3 Month Change	14.94%
1 Year Change	-15.63%
3 Year Change	-9.24%
5 Year Change	-17.39%
Change since IPO	769.90%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 30

New York Community Bancorp (NYSE:NYCB) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.17

The board of New York Community Bancorp, Inc. ( NYSE:NYCB ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.17 per...

Jul 27

New York Community Bancorp Non-GAAP EPS of $0.35 beats by $0.03, revenue of $377M beats by $23.04M

New York Community Bancorp press release (NYSE:NYCB): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.35 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $377M (+8.6% Y/Y) beats by $23.04M. Pre-provision net revenue ("PPNR") totaled $239 million, up 15% on a year-over-year basis; excluding merger-related expenses, PPNR on a non-GAAP basis was $243 million, up 11% on a year-over-year basis. Return on average common stockholders' equity and return on average tangible common stockholders' equity were 10.18% and 16.73%, respectively, compared to 9.00% and 14.54%, respectively, for the second quarter of last year. The efficiency ratio improved to 35.57% for the current second quarter compared to 37.11% for the second quarter of last year.

Shareholder Returns

	NYCB	US Mortgage	US Market
7D	-3.1%	0.4%	1.1%
1Y	-15.6%	-24.3%	-13.0%

Return vs Industry: NYCB exceeded the US Mortgage industry which returned -23.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NYCB underperformed the US Market which returned -12.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NYCB's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NYCB volatility
NYCB Average Weekly Movement	4.9%
Mortgage Industry Average Movement	3.7%
Market Average Movement	7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: NYCB is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NYCB's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1859	2,815	Tom Cangemi	https://www.mynycb.com

New York Community Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for New York Community Bank that provides banking products and services in Metro New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Florida, and Arizona. The company accepts various deposit products, such as interest-bearing checking and money market, savings, non-interest-bearing, and individual retirement accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. Its loan products include multi-family loans; commercial real estate loans; specialty finance loans and leases; and commercial and industrial loans; acquisition, development, and construction loans; one-to-four family loans; and consumer loans.

New York Community Bancorp Fundamentals Summary

How do New York Community Bancorp's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NYCB fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$4.81b
Earnings (TTM)	US$585.00m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.38b

8.2x

P/E Ratio

0.8x

P/B Ratio

Is NYCB overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NYCB income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.38b
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$1.38b
Other Expenses	US$799.00m
Earnings	US$585.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.25
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	42.27%
Debt/Equity Ratio	209.7%

How did NYCB perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

6.6%

Current Dividend Yield

54%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is NYCB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NYCB?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for NYCB. This is calculated by dividing NYCB's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is NYCB's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$4.81b

NYCB key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NYCB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

NYCB PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for NYCB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	35.3x
ESNT Essent Group	5.2x	-18.5%	US$4.6b
MTG MGIC Investment	5.8x	-10.4%	US$4.4b
ACT Enact Holdings	6.4x	-9.5%	US$4.2b
FNMA Federal National Mortgage Association	123.7x	-171.4%	US$3.7b
NYCB New York Community Bancorp	8.2x	28.6%	US$4.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NYCB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the peer average (35.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NYCB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NYCB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the US Mortgage industry average (11.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NYCB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NYCB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	8.2x
Fair PE Ratio	19.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NYCB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NYCB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NYCB ($10.31) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($14.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NYCB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is New York Community Bancorp forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

28.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NYCB's forecast earnings growth (28.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: NYCB's earnings (28.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NYCB's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NYCB's revenue (34.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NYCB's revenue (34.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NYCB's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.4%).

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Past Performance

How has New York Community Bancorp performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

7.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NYCB has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: NYCB's current net profit margins (42.3%) are lower than last year (44.1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NYCB's earnings have grown by 7.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: NYCB's earnings growth over the past year (4.1%) is below its 5-year average (7.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: NYCB earnings growth over the past year (4.1%) exceeded the Mortgage industry 0.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: NYCB's Return on Equity (9.2%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is New York Community Bancorp's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: NYCB's Assets to Equity ratio (9.2x) is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: NYCB has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (432%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 73% of NYCB's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: NYCB has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (77%).

Low Risk Deposits: NYCB's Loans to Deposits ratio (117%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: NYCB has an appropriate level of bad loans (0.1%).

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Dividend

What is New York Community Bancorp current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

6.60%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: NYCB's dividend (6.6%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.52%).

High Dividend: NYCB's dividend (6.6%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.1%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: NYCB's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: NYCB's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (54%), NYCB's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: NYCB's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (47.5% payout ratio).

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Tom Cangemi (53 yo)

1.67yrs

Tenure

US$8,652,305

Compensation

Mr. Thomas Robert Cangemi C.P.A., also known as Tom, has been President, Chief Executive Officer and a Director of New York Community Bancorp, Inc. and New York Community Bank since December 31, 2020 and s...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Tom's total compensation ($USD8.65M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD8.35M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Tom's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NYCB's management team is considered experienced (2.1 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: NYCB's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 10 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: NYCB insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/08 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/08 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31