Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PROV) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$9.4m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 15%, coming in at just US$0.22 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Provident Financial Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, Provident Financial Holdings' two analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$40.2m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 27% to US$1.32. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$42.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.42 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 6.7% to US$14.00.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's also worth noting that the years of declining revenue look to have come to an end, with the forecast stauing flat to the end of 2025. Historically, Provident Financial Holdings' top line has shrunk approximately 4.2% annually over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.0% annually. Although Provident Financial Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Provident Financial Holdings. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Provident Financial Holdings' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Provident Financial Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Provident Financial Holdings that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.