Analysts Are Updating Their Independent Bank Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:IBTX) Estimates After Its Full-Year Results

Independent Bank Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:IBTX) last week reported its latest full-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$596m and statutory earnings per share of US$5.21 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Independent Bank Group is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Independent Bank Group

Following last week's earnings report, Independent Bank Group's six analysts are forecasting 2022 revenues to be US$597.1m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 6.7% to US$4.86 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$596.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.87 in 2022. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$83.33. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Independent Bank Group analyst has a price target of US$85.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$77.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Independent Bank Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Independent Bank Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2022 expected to display 0.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Independent Bank Group.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$83.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Independent Bank Group going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Independent Bank Group that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.