Stock Analysis

Fulton Financial Corporation Recorded A 5.7% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

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It's shaping up to be a tough period for Fulton Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:FULT), which a week ago released some disappointing annual results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 5.7% short of analyst estimates at US$1.0b, and statutory earnings of US$1.64 per share missed forecasts by 2.2%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Fulton Financial

NasdaqGS:FULT Earnings and Revenue Growth January 19th 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Fulton Financial's seven analysts is for revenues of US$1.07b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 4.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 10% to US$1.50 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.07b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.48 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$16.29, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Fulton Financial at US$17.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$15.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Fulton Financial is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Fulton Financial's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 6.2% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Fulton Financial is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Fulton Financial going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Fulton Financial that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.