First Community Bankshares (NasdaqGS:FCBC) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of FCBC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

FCBC ($29.79) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($49.94)

FCBC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

FCBC Stock Overview

First Community Bankshares, Inc. operates as the financial holding company for First Community Bank that provides various banking products and services.

Rewards

Trading at 40.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings have grown 14.6% per year over the past 5 years

Pays a reliable dividend of 3.63%

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.8% per year for the next 3 years

First Community Bankshares Competitors

Mercantile Bank

NasdaqGS:MBWM

US$517.3m

Arrow Financial

NasdaqGS:AROW

US$517.5m

Peapack-Gladstone Financial

NasdaqGS:PGC

US$525.2m

MetroCity Bankshares

NasdaqGS:MCBS

US$522.5m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for First Community Bankshares
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$29.79
52 Week High	US$36.73
52 Week Low	US$26.51
Beta	0.54
1 Month Change	4.27%
3 Month Change	6.93%
1 Year Change	0.71%
3 Year Change	-9.37%
5 Year Change	7.97%
Change since IPO	193.34%

Shareholder Returns

	FCBC	US Banks	US Market
7D	2.6%	-1.4%	-2.2%
1Y	0.7%	-18.3%	-19.1%

Return vs Industry: FCBC exceeded the US Banks industry which returned -18.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FCBC exceeded the US Market which returned -21.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is FCBC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
FCBC volatility
FCBC Average Weekly Movement	3.6%
Banks Industry Average Movement	3.9%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: FCBC is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: FCBC's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1874	610	Will Stafford	https://www.firstcommunitybank.com

First Community Bankshares, Inc. operates as the financial holding company for First Community Bank that provides various banking products and services. It offers demand deposit accounts, savings and money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and individual retirement arrangements; commercial, consumer, and real estate mortgage loans, as well as lines of credit; various credit and debit cards, and automated teller machine card services; and corporate and personal trust services. The company also provides wealth management services, including trust management, estate administration, and investment advisory services; and investment management services.

First Community Bankshares Fundamentals Summary

How do First Community Bankshares's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
FCBC fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$498.55m
Earnings (TTM)	US$46.08m
Revenue (TTM)	US$139.78m

10.8x

P/E Ratio

1.2x

P/B Ratio

Is FCBC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
FCBC income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$139.78m
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$139.78m
Other Expenses	US$93.70m
Earnings	US$46.08m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.75
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	32.97%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0.6%

How did FCBC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.6%

Current Dividend Yield

40%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is FCBC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FCBC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for FCBC. This is calculated by dividing FCBC's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is FCBC's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$498.55m

FCBC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	-6.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FCBC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

FCBC PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for FCBC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.2x
MBWM Mercantile Bank	9.2x	7.3%	US$517.3m
AROW Arrow Financial	10.5x	3.9%	US$517.5m
PGC Peapack-Gladstone Financial	9.2x	15.2%	US$525.2m
MCBS MetroCity Bankshares	7.7x	-0.5%	US$522.5m
FCBC First Community Bankshares	10.8x	-1.8%	US$498.5m

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FCBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the peer average (9.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FCBC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FCBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the US Banks industry average (9.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FCBC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FCBC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.8x
Fair PE Ratio	10.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FCBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FCBC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FCBC ($29.79) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($49.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FCBC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: FCBC's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is First Community Bankshares forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-1.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FCBC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.8% per year).

Earnings vs Market: FCBC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: FCBC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FCBC's revenue (2.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FCBC's revenue (2.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if FCBC's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has First Community Bankshares performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

14.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FCBC has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: FCBC's current net profit margins (33%) are higher than last year (32.3%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: FCBC's earnings have grown by 14.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: FCBC's earnings growth over the past year (8%) is below its 5-year average (14.6% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: FCBC earnings growth over the past year (8%) underperformed the Banks industry 20.8%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: FCBC's Return on Equity (10.9%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is First Community Bankshares's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: FCBC's Assets to Equity ratio (7.6x) is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: FCBC has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (134%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 99% of FCBC's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: FCBC has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (68%).

Low Risk Deposits: FCBC's Loans to Deposits ratio (80%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: FCBC has an appropriate level of bad loans (1%).

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Dividend

What is First Community Bankshares's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

3.62%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: FCBC's dividend (3.63%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.6%).

High Dividend: FCBC's dividend (3.63%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.25%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: FCBC's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: FCBC's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (40.1%), FCBC's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years or that it will be covered by earnings.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

8.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Will Stafford (58 yo)

8.92yrs

Tenure

US$690,996

Compensation

Mr. William P. Stafford, II, also known as Will, has been the Chief Executive Officer of First Community Bankshares, Inc., the holding company of First Community Bank since August 31, 2013. Mr. Stafford se...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Will's total compensation ($USD691.00K) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.92M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Will's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: FCBC's management team is seasoned and experienced (8.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: FCBC's board of directors are considered experienced (6.9 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: FCBC insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/04 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31