First Bancorp (FBNC): Assessing Valuation After Recent 10% Pullback and Strong Long-Term Growth

First Bancorp (FBNC) shares have pulled back about 10% over the past month, even as the company continues to report growing revenue and net income. Investors may be weighing recent banking sector volatility in contrast to First Bancorp’s solid annual growth rates.

See our latest analysis for First Bancorp.

After a strong start to the year, First Bancorp’s share price has cooled in recent weeks, reflecting shifting sentiment across regional banks rather than any major company setback. Despite a recent 10% slide over the past month, the 2024 year-to-date share price return still stands at a healthy 14.4%, and total shareholder returns remain robust over the longer term, with 1-year and 5-year gains of 17.9% and 141.1% respectively. This suggests momentum has softened lately, but the broader trend remains positive for long-term holders.

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With shares still trading at a noticeable discount to analyst targets and First Bancorp’s growth figures outpacing many peers, the question remains: is there untapped value here, or has the market already accounted for future gains?

Price-to-Earnings of 21.1x: Is it justified?

First Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.1x, noticeably higher than both its industry and peer averages, even after a substantial pullback in the share price.

The price-to-earnings ratio reflects how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of current earnings. In banking, this multiple gives a quick sense of whether the market believes in the sustainability or growth potential of a bank’s profit stream.

At 21.1x, the market is pricing First Bancorp above both the US banks industry average (11.6x) and direct peer average (14.2x). This signals higher expectations but may leave little margin for error if earnings momentum stalls. Further, our estimate of the fair P/E ratio for First Bancorp is 16.4x, suggesting the stock is not just richly valued compared to its sector but also versus its own fundamentals. This level could serve as an eventual reference point for mean reversion.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for First Bancorp

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 21.1x (OVERVALUED)

However, faster-than-expected earnings slowdowns or industry-wide sentiment shifts could quickly pressure valuations and test investor confidence in First Bancorp.

Find out about the key risks to this First Bancorp narrative.

Another View: Is the Market Missing Something?

While the high price-to-earnings ratio points to an expensive stock, our DCF model presents a different perspective. It suggests First Bancorp is trading well below its intrinsic value, with a share price of $49.19 compared to a DCF fair value estimate of $74.89. Does this divergence reveal a real opportunity or a lingering risk?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out First Bancorp for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own First Bancorp Narrative

Feel free to dig into the numbers and shape your own perspective. Creating a custom First Bancorp narrative takes just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding First Bancorp.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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