CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. Recorded A 41% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:CFB), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its annual results last week. Earnings came in short of expectations, with revenues of US$102m missing the mark by 41%, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.24 falling 2.4% short. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for CrossFirst Bankshares

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from CrossFirst Bankshares' five analysts is for revenues of US$169.5m in 2021, which would reflect a major 67% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 825% to US$0.68. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$169.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.68 in 2021. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 10.0% to US$13.20. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic CrossFirst Bankshares analyst has a price target of US$14.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$10.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that CrossFirst Bankshares' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 67% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11%p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.5% next year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that CrossFirst Bankshares is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple CrossFirst Bankshares analysts - going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that CrossFirst Bankshares is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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