We're Not Very Worried About QuantumScape's (NYSE:QS) Cash Burn Rate

There's no doubt that money can be made by owning shares of unprofitable businesses. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

Check out our latest analysis for QuantumScape

How Long Is QuantumScape's Cash Runway?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. In December 2023, QuantumScape had US$1.1b in cash, and was debt-free. Importantly, its cash burn was US$325m over the trailing twelve months. So it had a cash runway of about 3.3 years from December 2023. There's no doubt that this is a reassuringly long runway. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.

How Is QuantumScape's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Because QuantumScape isn't currently generating revenue, we consider it an early-stage business. Nonetheless, we can still examine its cash burn trajectory as part of our assessment of its cash burn situation. With cash burn dropping by 14% it seems management feel the company is spending enough to advance its business plans at an appropriate pace. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

How Hard Would It Be For QuantumScape To Raise More Cash For Growth?

While QuantumScape is showing a solid reduction in its cash burn, it's still worth considering how easily it could raise more cash, even just to fuel faster growth. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).

QuantumScape has a market capitalisation of US$3.1b and burnt through US$325m last year, which is 10% of the company's market value. As a result, we'd venture that the company could raise more cash for growth without much trouble, albeit at the cost of some dilution.

How Risky Is QuantumScape's Cash Burn Situation?

It may already be apparent to you that we're relatively comfortable with the way QuantumScape is burning through its cash. In particular, we think its cash runway stands out as evidence that the company is well on top of its spending. On this analysis its cash burn reduction was its weakest feature, but we are not concerned about it. After taking into account the various metrics mentioned in this report, we're pretty comfortable with how the company is spending its cash, as it seems on track to meet its needs over the medium term. Taking a deeper dive, we've spotted 6 warning signs for QuantumScape you should be aware of, and 2 of them don't sit too well with us.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.