NIO (NYSE:NIO) Sets Delivery Records—What Does It Mean for the Stock’s Valuation?

NIO (NYSE:NIO) reached new milestones in September 2025, delivering a record 34,749 vehicles for the month and 87,071 for the quarter. These highs, driven by fresh demand for its flagship ES8 SUV, highlight sustained growth across NIO's expanding portfolio.

See our latest analysis for NIO.

Following these record-breaking deliveries, NIO’s share price has shown encouraging momentum, ending the latest session at $7.89 and notching a strong 75% gain year-to-date. While the one-year total shareholder return is up only slightly, sustained demand and high-profile product launches signal a company that’s grabbing attention and may still have room to run, even with ongoing price competition and fresh regulatory pressures in China.

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The question now is whether all this excitement is already reflected in NIO’s share price or if today’s valuation leaves the door open for investors seeking the next leg of growth. Is there still an opportunity here, or has the market already priced in the upside?

Most Popular Narrative: 19.9% Overvalued

NIO's latest close at $7.89 stands well above the most followed narrative's fair value calculation of $6.58 per share. This sets up a compelling backdrop to examine which key drivers justify such a high bar and where expectations might be running hot.

Expansion and densification of NIO's proprietary Power Swap network and charging infrastructure across China's largest cities and highways removes range anxiety and further differentiates NIO from competitors, accelerating EV adoption and increasing recurring services revenue and margin stability.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how much future revenue, margin expansion, and infrastructure scale are really factored into this valuation? The narrative’s model leans on ambitious growth projections and a premium on long-term profitability that could surprise even NIO’s biggest fans. Explore which assumptions set the fair value apart from where the shares trade now.

Result: Fair Value of $6.58 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent net losses and fierce competition could quickly turn sentiment. This is especially true if margin improvements or demand stumble in this fast-evolving market.

Find out about the key risks to this NIO narrative.

Build Your Own NIO Narrative

If you see the story differently or want your own perspective, dive into the data and build a personal view in minutes, then Do it your way

A great starting point for your NIO research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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