NIO (NYSE:NIO): Evaluating Valuation After Record Deliveries and Strategic Insurance Expansion

If you’ve been following NIO (NYSE:NIO), you may have noticed the latest buzz around its soaring August delivery numbers and expanded partnership with Cheche Group. The company just hit a new monthly record, delivering over 31,000 vehicles, which is a 55% jump from last year, and mapped out manufacturing plans to ramp up two flagship models in the coming months. Add to that a new push to refine insurance offerings for its growing lineup, and it’s clear the team is working to unlock more value in every part of the customer experience.

These recent updates build on momentum that has been gathering over the past year. NIO’s year-to-date deliveries have now topped 166,000 units, with cumulative deliveries above 830,000, and guidance points to revenue growth between 17% and 23% for the third quarter. The stock has climbed nearly 30% in the past month and 68% over the past three months, although the longer-term record is still mixed. Investor sentiment seems to be shifting, with stronger short-term performance putting a spotlight on its strategy and scale.

But after the latest surge, the real question is whether NIO’s current share price leaves room for upside, or if the market is already anticipating even more growth ahead.

Most Popular Narrative: 0.6% Overvalued

According to KGarner789, the prevailing narrative suggests NIO is trading close to its fair value, with only a slight premium to the estimated fair price. The latest growth forecasts and business innovations have been key talking points fueling this perspective.

"NIO Inc. (Ticker: NIO) Overview NIO is a Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer that focuses on designing and developing premium smart electric cars. Founded in 2014 and headquartered in Shanghai, it is often compared to Tesla for its innovative technology, sleek design, and focus on battery solutions."

This valuation is about more than just the number on the ticker. What if one of the industry’s most ambitious battery strategies contains an overlooked growth lever? The numbers used in this fair value calculation are based on assumptions that could change how investors view NIO’s path next year. Think they are relying on just hype? Look closer to discover the narrative’s real financial drivers.

Result: Fair Value of $6.24 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent losses and fierce competition could challenge NIO’s growth narrative, particularly if expansion costs increase or rivals advance more quickly.

Find out about the key risks to this NIO narrative.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Offers a Twist

Looking from a different angle, our DCF model comes to a more optimistic conclusion and suggests NIO’s shares are actually undervalued. When numbers disagree, which lens gives the clearest view of real value?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out NIO for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own NIO Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the details on your own terms, you can shape a personal view in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your NIO research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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