What Does Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) Share Price Indicate?

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the NYSE over the last few months. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s take a look at Harley-Davidson’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Harley-Davidson

What's The Opportunity In Harley-Davidson?

According to my valuation model, Harley-Davidson seems to be fairly priced at around 3.6% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Harley-Davidson today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $49.17, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Harley-Davidson’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

Can we expect growth from Harley-Davidson?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of Harley-Davidson, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -0.6%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? Currently, HOG appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on HOG for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on HOG should the price fluctuate below its true value.

In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. To help with this, we've discovered 2 warning signs (1 is potentially serious!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Harley-Davidson.

If you are no longer interested in Harley-Davidson, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.