Ford (F): Assessing Valuation Following Record U.S. Sales and Surging EV Demand

Ford Motor (F) is in the spotlight after reporting record third quarter sales in the U.S., driven by all-time highs for key models like the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning. This strong performance arrived just as the federal $7,500 EV tax credit expired, which fueled a wave of electric vehicle purchases and created fresh market questions for the months ahead.

See our latest analysis for Ford Motor.

Ford's share price has seen modest momentum lately, with a 2025 year-to-date share price return of 31.3%, supported by upbeat sales reports and continued consumer demand despite headwinds such as the end of EV tax credits and strategic job cuts in Europe. Over the last five years, the company delivered a total shareholder return of 127.7%, underscoring strength through cycles even as the competitive landscape and consumer incentives shift.

Curious what other automakers are thriving or adapting in this dynamic market? Now's a great time to explore See the full list for free.

Yet with shares rising and Ford trading at a premium to its price target, investors are left to wonder: Is Ford undervalued after its blockbuster quarter, or is the market already pricing in all of the company’s future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.6% Overvalued

Ford's fair value in the most widely tracked narrative sits well below the current share price, reflecting expert forward-looking projections and cautious optimism on long-term profitability. This sets the stage for a deep dive into the rationale and catalysts supporting the narrative's current perspective.

Ford's ongoing transformation of its Ford Pro commercial platform, emphasizing high-margin, recurring revenues from software, telematics, and aftermarket services, continues to outperform, with paid software subscriptions up 24% year-over-year and aftermarket approaching 20% of Pro EBIT. This shift toward recurring digital revenues supports structurally higher net margins and enhances earnings durability.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what it takes for Ford to win on more than truck sales? The narrative hinges on a bold turnaround plan with surprising revenue and profit margin expectations. Which financial levers are analysts betting on, and is this new digital focus enough to close the gap with rivals? Find out what could push the fair value higher or send it lower. See the full story and discover the financial forecasts behind the headline number.

Result: Fair Value of $11.15 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent high warranty expenses and increased competition from Japanese automakers could put pressure on Ford's earnings outlook and challenge the bullish case.

Find out about the key risks to this Ford Motor narrative.

Another View: What Do Market Multiples Suggest?

While Ford looks overvalued by fair value estimates, market ratios offer a different outlook. Ford’s price-to-earnings ratio of 16x is below both the industry average of 18x and the peer average of 18x. It also sits well beneath the fair ratio of 20.6x. This gap highlights a potential opportunity, but does it also reflect hidden risks?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Ford Motor Narrative

If you want a fresh take or prefer diving into the numbers yourself, try building your own Ford Motor view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Ford Motor research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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