How Investors Are Reacting To Tesla (TSLA) Expanding Grid-Scale Storage With New SPIE Megapack Deal

• Earlier this month, SPIE announced a three-year renewable European framework agreement with Tesla to deploy Megapack-based battery energy storage systems, covering engineering, grid connections, and commissioning across its specialist subsidiaries.
• The deal underlines Tesla’s push to monetise its energy technology beyond vehicles, as grid-scale storage becomes more important for integrating renewable power and maintaining network stability.
• We’ll now examine how Musk’s renewed pay package and Tesla’s advancing robotaxi tests in Austin may reshape this investment narrative.

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Tesla Investment Narrative Recap

Tesla’s story today hinges on robotaxis and AI-driven software eventually outweighing a pressured EV hardware business. The SPIE Megapack deal reinforces the energy segment, but it does not materially change the key near term catalyst, which is regulatory progress on autonomous ride hailing, or the biggest risk, which is that expensive parallel bets in autonomy, robotics and new models keep squeezing margins and free cash flow.

Against this backdrop, the Delaware Supreme Court’s reinstatement of Elon Musk’s 2018 pay package matters because it locks in very aggressive production, software subscription and robotaxi performance hurdles that many investors now use as a reference point when judging execution risk and upside around Tesla’s autonomy roadmap.

Yet investors should also recognise how quickly those same ambitious autonomy targets could become a problem if approvals stall or margins erode faster than expected...

Read the full narrative on Tesla (it's free!)

Tesla’s narrative projects $148.1 billion revenue and $15.4 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 16.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $9.5 billion from $5.9 billion today.

Uncover how Tesla's forecasts yield a $391.35 fair value, a 19% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

214 members of the Simply Wall St Community now place Tesla’s fair value anywhere between US$67 and over US$2,700, underscoring how far apart expectations sit. You are weighing those views against a business where the core EV segment is under pressure while energy storage partnerships and robotaxi trials push the thesis toward higher margin software and grid solutions.

Explore 214 other fair value estimates on Tesla - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Tesla Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Tesla research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Tesla research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Tesla's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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