Can Li Auto's (LI) Latest Delivery Surge Strengthen Its Competitive Edge in China’s EV Market?

• Li Auto Inc. recently announced that it delivered 33,951 vehicles in September 2025, totaling 93,211 deliveries for the third quarter and 1.43 million for the year up to September 30.
• This update underscores the company's ongoing ability to scale production and meet demand in China’s competitive new energy vehicle market.
• We’ll examine how Li Auto’s solid quarterly delivery figures influence its investment narrative, especially as the upcoming earnings report approaches.

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Li Auto Investment Narrative Recap

To believe in Li Auto as a shareholder is to back its capacity to maintain sales momentum and transition successfully from extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) amid fierce domestic competition. The recent delivery update, while solid in execution and in line with lowered guidance, is not likely to materially change the biggest short-term catalyst, the adoption curve for new BEV models, or alter the key risk tied to margin pressure if scale does not recover. Li Auto’s late September launch of the Li i6, a new five-seat BEV, is especially relevant here, as it signals ongoing commitment to BEV transition. This launch underscores the immediate importance of the company’s ability to stimulate demand, manage inventory, and leverage its expanding charging infrastructure, all fundamental to sustaining delivery growth and offsetting competition-driven pricing pressures. But with growing pressure on margins and falling incentives, it’s important to remember that if demand for new models wanes...

Read the full narrative on Li Auto (it's free!)

Li Auto's outlook envisions CN¥232.1 billion in revenue and CN¥15.2 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario assumes 17.4% annual revenue growth and an earnings increase of CN¥7.1 billion from the current CN¥8.1 billion.

Uncover how Li Auto's forecasts yield a $29.30 fair value, a 29% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five members of the Simply Wall St Community see Li Auto’s fair value in a US$27.31 to US$33.04 range. While these viewpoints vary, falling margins and market pressure continue to challenge the company’s profit outlook, inviting you to weigh different opinions on its path forward.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Li Auto - why the stock might be worth as much as 45% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Li Auto Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Li Auto research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Li Auto research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Li Auto's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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