Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For Lucid Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:LCID) After Its Latest Results

Lucid Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:LCID) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It was not a great result overall, as revenues of US$151m fell 26% short of analyst expectations. Unsurprisingly, statutory losses ended up being11% larger than the analysts expected, at US$0.40 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Lucid Group

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Lucid Group are now predicting revenues of US$810.0m in 2023. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 7.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$1.52 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$900.3m and losses of US$1.42 per share in 2023. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$7.83, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Lucid Group analyst has a price target of US$10.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Lucid Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 315% over the past year. Compare this to the 47 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Lucid Group is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Lucid Group going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Lucid Group that you need to take into consideration.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.