Newsflash: Luminar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LAZR) Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Revenue Forecasts

Today is shaping up negative for Luminar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LAZR) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

After this downgrade, Luminar Technologies' twelve analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$92m in 2023. This would be a major 126% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Before the latest update, the analysts were foreseeing US$97m of revenue in 2023. It looks like the analysts have become a bit less bullish on Luminar Technologies, given the modest decline in revenue estimates after the latest consensus updates.

See our latest analysis for Luminar Technologies

We'd point out that there was no major changes to their price target of US$13.42, suggesting the latest estimates were not enough to shift their view on the value of the business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Luminar Technologies at US$24.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$5.00. We would probably assign less value to the forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Luminar Technologies' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 126% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 43% per annum over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Luminar Technologies is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for this year. The analysts also expect revenues to grow faster than the wider market. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of Luminar Technologies going forwards.

Of course, there's always more to the story. We have estimates for Luminar Technologies from its twelve analysts out until 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.