Luminar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LAZR) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Luminar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LAZR) last week reported its latest first-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues of US$15m crushed expectations, although expenses also blew out, with the company reporting a statutory loss per share of US$0.40, 23% bigger than analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Luminar Technologies

After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Luminar Technologies are now predicting revenues of US$88.0m in 2023. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 82% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$1.39 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$88.7m and US$1.09 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$12.79, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Luminar Technologies, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$24.00 and the most bearish at US$4.50 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Luminar Technologies' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 122% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2023 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 44% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 16% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Luminar Technologies to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Luminar Technologies. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$12.79, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Luminar Technologies analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Luminar Technologies is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.