Hesai Group (NasdaqGS:HSAI): Valuation in Focus After Fortune Recognition and Major Robotaxi Supply Deal

If you have been on the fence about Hesai Group (NasdaqGS:HSAI), now might be the time to tune in. In the span of just a few weeks, Hesai has not only secured its place on Fortune’s 2025 Change the World list for making advanced lidar technology safer and more accessible, but has also reached a significant expansion in its partnership with a major U.S.-based robotaxi company. With a fresh $40 million production agreement under its belt and an exclusive supplier status for both long- and short-range lidars, Hesai is drawing some serious attention as autonomous mobility begins to take off in new ways.

The impact of these milestones has not gone unnoticed in the market. Hesai’s shares have surged more than 30% over the past three months, building on a year-to-date gain above 78%. This kind of momentum stands out, especially when paired with fast-rising revenue and net income. It also comes against a backdrop of rapid adoption of L4 autonomous technology, where Hesai claims a standout 61% global market share for automotive lidar. The past year has seen the company not just win new clients, but also be recognized globally for making life-saving driver-assistance systems broadly available. This points to growing confidence in its future prospects.

With the stock’s strong run and new wins piling up, the big question for investors is whether Hesai is still undervalued or if the market is already pricing in the company’s next phase of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 1.1% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, Hesai Group is seen as slightly undervalued based on analysts’ projection of robust future earnings, revenue growth and new market wins.

New market opportunities such as the integration of LiDAR into robotics, including lawnmowers and smart home appliances, are anticipated to drive additional revenue streams starting in 2026. Overseas project wins are expected to enhance margins and diversify revenue, supporting a more optimistic outlook on future profitability.

What is the real engine behind this valuation? There are bold assumptions on rapid profit expansion, outsize future margins, and a projected earnings leap that rivals the most optimistic tech stories. Wondering just how ambitious those analyst expectations are, and what it would actually take for Hesai to reach this fair value? Unpack the narrative for all the dramatic growth numbers fueling this premium price.

Result: Fair Value of $29.09 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, future growth could falter if major clients like BYD or Li Auto scale back orders, or if aggressive pricing pressures unexpectedly impact profit margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Hesai Group narrative.

Another View: Peer Comparisons Signal Caution

Looking from a market multiples angle, the current price appears steep compared to the Auto Components industry average. While analysts see big potential ahead, the question remains whether this optimism is already fully reflected or even overdone.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Hesai Group to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Hesai Group Narrative

If you’re not convinced by these takes or want to run the numbers yourself, you can craft your own view in just minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Hesai Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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