Results: MediaTek Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from MediaTek Inc. (TWSE:2454), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues were NT$132b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of NT$15.94 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 10%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for MediaTek

Following the latest results, MediaTek's 22 analysts are now forecasting revenues of NT$590.1b in 2025. This would be a decent 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 5.1% to NT$71.39. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of NT$587.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of NT$71.67 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of NT$1,451, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MediaTek at NT$1,700 per share, while the most bearish prices it at NT$1,150. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MediaTek's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 10% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 17% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MediaTek is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at NT$1,451, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MediaTek. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MediaTek going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for MediaTek that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.