Stock Analysis

A Look At The Fair Value Of Orient EuroPharma Co., Ltd. (GTSM:4120)

TPEX:4120
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In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Orient EuroPharma Co., Ltd. (GTSM:4120) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Orient EuroPharma

The calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Levered FCF (NT$, Millions) NT$199.4m NT$213.3m NT$224.2m NT$232.8m NT$239.6m NT$245.1m NT$249.7m NT$253.6m NT$256.9m NT$260.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 9.59% Est @ 6.96% Est @ 5.12% Est @ 3.83% Est @ 2.93% Est @ 2.3% Est @ 1.86% Est @ 1.55% Est @ 1.33% Est @ 1.18%
Present Value (NT$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.6% NT$187 NT$188 NT$185 NT$180 NT$174 NT$167 NT$160 NT$152 NT$145 NT$137

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = NT$1.7b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = NT$260m× (1 + 0.8%) ÷ (6.6%– 0.8%) = NT$4.5b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= NT$4.5b÷ ( 1 + 6.6%)10= NT$2.4b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is NT$4.1b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of NT$48.9, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
GTSM:4120 Discounted Cash Flow December 18th 2020

The assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Orient EuroPharma as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.943. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Orient EuroPharma, we've put together three further aspects you should explore:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Orient EuroPharma (2 are potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 4120's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the GTSM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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