Pegavision Corporation (TWSE:6491) Just Reported Earnings, And Analysts Cut Their Target Price

Last week, you might have seen that Pegavision Corporation (TWSE:6491) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.7% to NT$376 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at NT$1.7b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at NT$22.61 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Pegavision

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Pegavision from four analysts is for revenues of NT$7.93b in 2025. If met, it would imply a notable 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 7.6% to NT$27.53. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of NT$8.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of NT$28.55 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 7.0% to NT$477. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Pegavision, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at NT$576 and the most bearish at NT$400 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Pegavision's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Pegavision's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 9.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 14% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Pegavision is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Pegavision. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Pegavision going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Pegavision (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.