Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB (publ) (STO:WIHL) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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What Is Wihlborgs Fastigheter's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2023 Wihlborgs Fastigheter had kr28.3b of debt, an increase on kr26.8b, over one year. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
How Healthy Is Wihlborgs Fastigheter's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Wihlborgs Fastigheter had liabilities of kr1.56b falling due within a year, and liabilities of kr33.4b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of kr162.0m as well as receivables valued at kr313.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total kr34.5b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's kr27.7b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 12.4, it's fair to say Wihlborgs Fastigheter does have a significant amount of debt. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 2.9 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. On the other hand, Wihlborgs Fastigheter grew its EBIT by 21% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Wihlborgs Fastigheter can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Wihlborgs Fastigheter recorded free cash flow worth 77% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
Wihlborgs Fastigheter's struggle handle its debt, based on its EBITDA, had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. For example its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was refreshing. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Wihlborgs Fastigheter's debt poses some risks to the business. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example Wihlborgs Fastigheter has 4 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About OM:WIHL
Wihlborgs Fastigheter
A property company, owns, develops, rents, and manages commercial properties in the Öresund region, Sweden.
Reasonable growth potential average dividend payer.